UK Economy: Post-Referendum Assessment

Philip Davies Excerpts

Monday 23rd May 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Gauke]

The hon. Gentleman raises an important point. The increase in unemployment would affect every region of the UK, and the north-east of England would not be immune to that. Indeed, as an important exporting region, it might be particularly vulnerable. The Treasury assessment suggests that there would be something like 20,000 more unemployed people in the north-east of England as a consequence of leaving the EU.

[Philip Davies (Shipley) (Con)]

When the Chancellor set up the Office for Budget Responsibility, he said that

“the public and the markets have completely lost confidence in government economic forecasts.”

He went on to say:

“Again and again, the temptation to fiddle the figures, to nudge up a growth forecast here or reduce a borrowing number there to make the numbers add up has proved too great… But I am the first Chancellor to remove the temptation to fiddle the figures by giving up control over the economic and fiscal forecast.”

Why does the Minister now disagree with the Chancellor, and why does the Chancellor now disagree with himself?

[Mr Gauke]

The remit of the Office for Budget Responsibility is set out in legislation, and it can set out forecasts only in accordance with Government policy. Today’s report, however, as I said earlier, has been signed off by Sir Charles Bean, who said that

“this comprehensive analysis by HM Treasury, which employs best-practice techniques, provides reasonable estimates of the likely size of the short-term impact of a vote to leave on the UK economy.”

We have third parties endorsing the analysis, having worked through the details.