UK Economy: Post-Referendum Assessment

Debate between Robin Walker and David Gauke

Monday 23rd May 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Gauke]

The hon. Gentleman is right that under the more severe shock scenario, unemployment would increase by 800,000 and GDP would be 6% lower than it would otherwise have been. These are significant numbers. They are not equivalent to the great depression, but they are still significant numbers that would have a significant effect on his and my constituents. The hon. Gentleman raises an important point, and I hope we will get greater clarity about exactly what leaving the EU would involve. It seems to me that there is a clear trade-off: the closer a country is to membership of the EU, as for example with the European economic area model, the more it will continue to have the attributes of EU membership; the further away it is, it may have that greater freedom and flexibility, but it will clearly face a much bigger economic shock.

[Mr Robin Walker (Worcester) (Con)]

Inward investment is crucial to this analysis, and my constituency attracts it from China, Australia and the United States as well as from Japan. One crucial factor that has led me to believe that we are stronger in is the fact that all those countries and their businesses want to see us as part of Europe. Indeed, some of those inward investments are European headquarters. What estimate has the Treasury made of the potential relief rally in investment in this country, as and when we choose to stay in?

[Mr Gauke]

That is an important point. Anyone who has met international investors who are considering where to locate their European headquarters, for example, will be aware that they value and support membership of the European Union. Without that, it would clearly be harder to attract some of that inward investment. My hon. Friend also raises an important point about whether we would see a recovery. Evidence suggests that there has been a slowing down of investment due to the uncertainty about our relationship with the EU, but that—the Bank of England has supported this view, if not the IMF—there is likely to be a reasonably quick recovery if we vote to remain on 23 June, and we would see the investment coming back without a long-term detrimental impact.

Budget Changes

Debate between Robin Walker and David Gauke

Monday 21st March 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Gauke]

That was not even the allegation. The reality is that, if we look at spending on disability living allowance and personal independence payments, it has gone up since 2010 by £3 billion—that is not a Government who are cutting at the expense of disabled people.

[Mr Robin Walker (Worcester) (Con)]

Will the Minister confirm that, as well as continuing to take thousands of my constituents out of paying income tax, and as well as shifting the burden of taxation from small businesses, through business rates, to multinationals, the Government remain committed to a progressive target of halving the disability employment gap?

[Mr Gauke]

Indeed. My hon. Friend makes a good point, and he is absolutely right to raise that. As I pointed out earlier, my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions will address that point, I am sure, later this afternoon.

HMRC and Google (Settlement)

Debate between Robin Walker and David Gauke

Monday 25th January 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Gauke]

Let me return to this case. There has been a lengthy inquiry by HMRC into the affairs of Google. That inquiry has now come to an end and reached a conclusion. There is nothing to suggest that anything other than the proper enforcement of the law as it stands has led the way to this particular conclusion.

[Mr Robin Walker (Worcester) (Con)]

The Minister has said much about bringing our tax system up to date for the 21st century and about closing the tax gap, which I welcome. None the less, we have in our business rates system, a tax regime that is hopelessly out of date, and the cross-party Business, Innovation and Skills Committee called for fundamental reform of it under the previous Government. May I urge him to be as ambitious as possible in that reform so that we can close the gap between online businesses and the bricks and mortar businesses on our high streets?

[Mr Gauke]

As my hon. Friend will be aware, the Government are reviewing the business rates system, and will report shortly. As far as my right hon. Friends the Chancellor and the Prime Minister are concerned—and as the Chancellor has made clear—we are looking to do that in a fiscally neutral way, and we have received many representations on that point.