John Bercow
Main Page: John Bercow (Speaker - Buckingham)Department Debates - View all John Bercow's debates with the HM Treasury
(9 years, 4 months ago)
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The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr George Osborne)
Four years ago, in the first autumn statement of this Parliament, I presented the accounts of an economy in crisis. Today, in the last autumn statement of this Parliament, I present a forecast which shows that the United Kingdom is the fastest growing major economy in the world. Back then, Britain was on the brink. Today, against a difficult global backdrop, I can report higher growth, lower unemployment, falling inflation, and a deficit that is falling too. Today, the deficit is half what we inherited. Our long-term economic plan is working.
Now, Britain faces a choice. Do we squander the economic security that we have gained, and go back to the disastrous decisions on spending, borrowing and welfare that got us into this mess, or do we finish the job, and go on building the secure economy that works for everyone? I say: we stay the course. We stay on course for prosperity.
Today, we do not shy away from the problems that remain unresolved in the British economy. Although the deficit is falling, it remains too high, so the measures that I announce today are not a net giveaway, but actually tighten the public finances a little. I could have eased up on our determination to deal with our debts; I have not.
Although business investment is rising strongly, we know that there is still much more to do on productivity, so today we boost our skills, our exports, our science and our infrastructure. Although employment is at a record high, we must never give up on the task of finding work for all young people, so today we move further towards full employment by supporting the businesses that create jobs and apprenticeships. For decades our economy has been too unbalanced, so we do more now to build the northern powerhouse. And today we back aspiration—the aspiration to save, to work, and to own your own home—in stark contrast to those who would hit people’s pensions and jobs and homes with higher taxes, for that is an approach that we entirely reject. Instead, we support people who want to work hard and get on, and it is for their sakes that we resolve to stay on course for prosperity.
I now turn to the report from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Let me again thank Robert Chote and his team for their hard work, and for restoring integrity and independence to our country’s economic forecasts.
Since the Budget, new international statistical standards have changed the assessment of the British economy in recent years. We now know that, contrary to claims that were made at the time, there was no recession in this Parliament, and no double dip. Indeed, the only recession was the great recession under the last Labour Government. We also know that the economy has grown faster than previously reported. It is up by more than 8% over the current Parliament: that is the third fastest growth in any major advanced economy since 2010. We know, too, that growth has been more balanced. We were told that business investment had risen by 4% over this Parliament; in fact, it has risen by 27%.
That is what we know about the recent past. Let us turn to the future. The warning lights are flashing over the global economy. Japan is in recession, the eurozone is stagnating, and the geopolitical risks are rising. I can tell the House that the OBR has therefore revised down its forecast for global growth this year and in every year. It notes that the slowdown is particularly acute in our main export markets, such as Europe, where growth is a full 1% lower this year than previously forecast. It makes it even more imperative that we connect British firms to the faster growing emerging economies of Africa, Asia and south America. Today I am providing a £45 million package to do that and to provide new support to first-time exporters.
As one of the most open trading economies in the world, with a large financial sector, Britain cannot be immune to the risks in the global economy, but nor are we powerless—provided we go on working through our plan to put our own house in order.
That brings me to today’s forecast. In the Budget, I reported that the OBR had revised up its forecasts for growth this year. A year ago, we expected GDP to grow by 2.4%. In March we expected 2.7%. Today, the British economy is forecast to grow by 3%. Over the last year we have grown two and half times faster than Germany; over three times faster than the eurozone; and over seven times faster than France. I think we can safely reject the advice of those in this House who told us on the steps of the Élysée palace that we should be doing to Britain what has been done to France.
Growth in the UK next year is also forecast a little higher at 2.4%, with quarterly growth moderating as it returns to trend, then 2.2% in 2016, 2.4% the year after, then 2.3% in 2018 and 2019, and the growth we are now seeing is more balanced. Manufacturing is growing faster than any other sector, and investment is set to be up 11% this year—growing faster in the UK than in any other major advanced economy.
This balanced growth is creating jobs, too, with a record number in work. At the Budget, the OBR expected that over the last year employment would rise by 265,000. Today, I can tell the House that it doubles that number. Over the last year, half a million new jobs have been created. In March, it forecast that in the first three quarters of the year the number claiming unemployment benefit would fall by 7%. Today, it says that it actually fell by 23%. The number of young people on long-term unemployment benefit has almost halved in the last year alone. Unemployment is revised down in every single year of the OBR forecast, falling from the 8% we inherited to 5.4% next year, before settling at 5.3%.
On average, for every day this Government have been in office, 1,000 new jobs have been created, 1,000 new opportunities for people, new economic security for 1,000 families every single day. Britain’s long-term economic plan is working.
In response to the caricature that some like to draw—that these jobs are being created only in London, that they are part time with women losing out—I say, look at the facts. How many of the jobs being created are full-time? Eighty-five per cent. Where are the jobs being created fastest right now? In Scotland and in the north of England. What is happening to the gender pay gap? It has just fallen to its lowest level in the entire history of this country. That is progressive politics in action.
Regular earnings growth is now faster than inflation. For those in full-time work for over a year, earnings grew 4% over the last year. The compositional effect of many more people finding work, particularly young people, is weighing down on overall average earnings, but the OBR today predicts that “meaningful real wage growth” will pick up through next year and grow above inflation for the next five years. Indeed, I can tell the House that GDP per capita has grown faster on average in this Parliament than over the last two Parliaments combined.
Living standards are also supported by our robust monetary policy arrangements with the Bank of England. Today, there is welcome news that the OBR has significantly revised down its forecast for inflation: it is expected to be down to 1.5% this year, 1.2% next year and 1.7% the year after, before it returns to target. So we have lower inflation, lower unemployment and higher growth.
That brings me to the forecasts for debt and deficit. There are those in this House who have been predicting from the Opposition Dispatch Box in recent weeks that I would have to announce today that the deficit was rising and that borrowing this year would be higher than last year. We discover today—I am afraid not for the first time—that their predictions are wrong: the deficit is falling this year and every year, and, not only that, but in the final four years of the forecast, borrowing is actually lower than predicted in the Budget. [Interruption.] The Office for National Statistics has made revisions to the way the national accounts are measured—[Interruption.]—and one of the advantages of having created an independent OBR is that it has ensured that the figures presented today are comparable on a like-for-like basis with the forecast made in the Budget. [Interruption.] On this revised basis, the forecast at the Budget would have shown borrowing falling from the £150 billion we inherited to £99.3 billion last year, £86.4 billion this year, £68.3 billion next year, then £41.5 billion, £15.8 billion, and then a small surplus of £3.7 billion in 2018-19. [Interruption.] That is the Budget forecast. [Interruption.] Today’s forecast shows borrowing falling from £97.5 billion last year to £91.3 billion this year, then £75.9 billion next year, then £40.9 billion, £14.5 billion, and then a surplus of £4 billion in 2018-19. So borrowing falls every year. It falls slightly less than expected in the first two years, but then falls slightly more than expected in the four years after that. [Interruption.] We end in a marginally stronger position than expected at the Budget, and I can tell the House that by 2019-20 Britain is now predicted to have a —[Interruption.]
Mr Speaker
Order. There is now excessive noise in the Chamber. The Chancellor should not have to shout in order to make himself heard, and to some degree he is having to do so at the moment, and that is not right. The House knows the track record: I facilitate the fullest possible questioning of the Chancellor—always have done, always will do—but colleagues must, please, give the Chancellor his head.
Mr Osborne
I can tell the House that by 2019-20 Britain is now predicted to have a surplus of £23 billion—out of the red and into the black for the first time in a generation, a country that inspires confidence around the world because it seeks to live within its means.
As a percentage of GDP, today the deficit is also forecast to fall this year, down by 0.6% of GDP—down from what the OBR describes today in its own report as
“the post-war record deficit of 10.2% of GDP”
in 2009-10 to 5% this year. The deficit is no longer down by a third, but is now cut in half. It is still too high, but with our plan it falls again to 4% next year, then 2.1%, then 0.7% before we move into surpluses of 0.2% and 1% of GDP. The structural deficit also falls and moves into surplus at the same pace over the next five years, as forecast at the Budget.
We continue to meet the debt mandate a year late and the fiscal mandate two years early. Again, because of the statistical revisions and the reclassification of Network Rail—given that Labour tried to put it off balance sheet—the OBR has given us a like-for-like comparison on debt as a share of GDP. On the new basis, it is 80.4% this year, next year it peaks at 81.1% —half a per cent. lower than previously forecast at the Budget—and it is then lower in every subsequent year, at 80.7% in 2016-17, 78.8% the year after, then 76.2%, before reaching 72.8% in 2019-20. Again, this is less than was forecast at the Budget.
Borrowing is falling. The deficit is down this year to half what we inherited. Debt is falling in the same year predicted, and lower in every year thereafter. There will be a surplus that is higher and by the end of the period worth £23 billion. Britain is back living within its means. Our long-term economic plan is on course.
The House will want to know why the public finance numbers are much better than some were predicting, even though tax receipts have deteriorated. The answer is that we cannot look at taxes alone; we have to look at spending, too. As has been widely reported, tax receipts have not been rising as quickly as the OBR had previously predicted. The OBR now forecasts that revenues will be £23 billion lower by 2017-18. However, that is more than offset by three things. First, we are paying less in welfare and saving money on public service pensions because of lower inflation and more people being in work. That saves £4 billion a year.
Secondly, the revisions to our national accounts have slightly increased the measured rate of spending cuts in this Parliament. We have a choice: we can ease up, or we can continue with our plans. Our policy of continuing the spending cuts in the first two full years of the next Parliament, at the same pace as we achieved in this Parliament, now produces £4 billion less spending. Thirdly, and crucially, the interest we pay on our national debt is £16 billion lower in that year. That is, by a large margin, the biggest saving and demonstrates the value of our fiscal credibility around the world. Some have pointed to lower tax receipts and put forward policies for higher taxes. I prefer lower tax receipts offset by lower debt interest payments, and that is what we are seeing today.
I do not hide from the House that in the coming years there are going to have to be very substantial savings in public spending. Next week we will publish a new charter for budget responsibility that will reinforce our commitment to finish the job in the next Parliament, and we will ask the House to vote on it in the new year. However, no charter, valuable as it is, can be a substitute for the hard work of identifying real savings in the cost of government and delivering them in practice. That is what we have done in this Parliament, and it is what we will have to do in the next.
The work starts with our spending plans for 2015-16, which save £13.6 billion. We have published the detailed and specific departmental proposals that will achieve them. There will be two further years where decisions on this scale will be required and, as I have said before, we are going to have to go on controlling spending after those years if we want to have a surplus and keep it. Of course, people are already saying it will be impossible to achieve those levels of savings. We heard exactly the same thing in 2010, often from exactly the same people. In fact, we have come in under budget every year of this Parliament. This year I can confirm that we will be spending £10 billion less than set out in our original spending plans.
There are those who say we should cut even faster, and those who say we should cut more slowly. But we have got the pace right, as is clearly demonstrated by the fact that our economy is growing faster than almost any other. And because of careful management, we can afford to put part of that underspend money into our national health service to cope with the pressures it faces: £2 billion every year to the front line of the NHS—not money that busts our plans, but extra money that is available because we have a plan.
Instead of returning the foreign exchange fines paid by the banks to the City, as happened under the previous Government, we are using that windfall for a £1.2 billion investment in GP services across the UK. That is a down-payment on the NHS’s own plan, proving definitively for anyone in any doubt that we cannot have a strong NHS without a strong economy. I can also tell the House that we will help with the employment of carers, who do so much, by extending the £2,000 employment allowance to include them.
We have shown in this Parliament that we can deliver spending reductions without damaging front-line public services if we are prepared to undertake reform. Crime is down. Satisfaction with local government services is up. Savings and reform—and we will do exactly the same again. Continuing to reduce departmental spending in the first two years of the next Parliament would mean at least £15 billion off Whitehall budgets. Our control of public sector pay in the past four years has delivered £12 billion of savings. By continuing to restrain public sector pay, we expect to deliver commensurate savings in the next Parliament until we have dealt with the deficit. Today I can confirm that we are committing to complete the public service pension reforms proposed by Lord Hutton, bringing total savings of £1.3 billion a year. Administration costs in Whitehall are already down 40% over this Parliament. Today, the Minister for the Cabinet Office and Paymaster General, my right hon. Friend the Member for Horsham (Mr Maude), is publishing a plan for a further £10 billion of efficiencies.
I am also confident that in the next Parliament we can continue to crack down on tax avoidance and evasion, and aggressive tax planning. Doing so at the same rate as in this Parliament would raise at least another £5 billion, and today I commit to delivering that. Then there is the new welfare cap that we have introduced to control the one sixth of public spending that was subject to absolutely no control at all. The OBR today reports that
“the Government is on track to meet the welfare cap commitment”.
Today we undertake further steps to control benefit spending by freezing universal credit work allowances for a further year, cutting tax credits when overpayments are certain, and ending unemployment benefits for migrants with no prospect of work. Total welfare spending is now set to be £1 billion a year lower than forecast at the Budget and it will go on falling as a share of our GDP. And, as I have made clear, I believe that we need to freeze working-age benefits for two years, saving billions more.
Decisions to control public spending are never easy, but the impact on people’s lives when economic stability is lost is far, far greater. I have always believed that we should be straight about what is required to restore stability and what is required to stay on course. Our task is made easier by the deal we secured for this country when we got the European Union budget cut. Some people claimed that our payments to the European Union would go up this year. Instead, I can confirm that the OBR’s forecast today shows Britain’s net payments to the EU falling by around £1 billion for this year and next year, and falling in real terms over the next five years. That is the dividend we receive thanks to a Prime Minister who fights hard for our national financial interest in Brussels.
Another bill that has gone down is the cost of our overseas military operations. The end of our operations in Afghanistan allows us to save an additional £200 million this year from the special military reserve. I join the rest of the House in saluting the brave men and women of our armed services who for more than a decade have risked their lives for our security in Iraq and Afghanistan. Even as we speak, they are tackling the horrific Ebola virus in west Africa, a fight that reminds us all of the value of Britain’s commitment to 0.7% in development aid. Today I am extending our inheritance tax exemption to cover our aid workers who lose their lives in dealing with humanitarian emergencies. LIBOR fines will continue to support our military and emergency service charities with support for our armed services benevolent charities and the Gurkhas and £10 million for veterans with hearing problems. We will ensure that the first world war continues to be properly commemorated, and this morning I have announced we will repay the entire outstanding national debt incurred to fight the first world war.
We will extend the cathedral renovation fund to cover repairs to our country’s churches. Thanks to the brilliant campaigns run by my hon. Friends the Members for Filton and Bradley Stoke (Jack Lopresti) and for Bristol North West (Charlotte Leslie) and others, we will use the LIBOR money for new helicopters for the Great Western air ambulance, and the Kent, Surrey and Sussex air ambulance, too. I will go further and refund VAT for our search and rescue and air ambulance organisations across the UK. Our hospice charities also make an enormous contribution to our communities. They have long been subject to unfair rules that force them to pay VAT, when the NHS does not. I am today refunding the VAT that these hospice charities incur.
I turn now from those who have paid too much tax to some of those who have paid too little. First, we will make sure that big multinational businesses pay their fair share. Some of the largest companies in the world, including those in the tech sector, use elaborate structures to avoid paying taxes. Today, I am introducing a 25% tax on profits generated by multinationals from economic activity here in the UK which they then artificially shift out of the country; that is not fair to other British firms and it is not fair to the British people either—today, we are putting a stop to it. My message is consistent and clear: low taxes; but low taxes that will be paid. Britain has led the world on this agenda and we do so again today. This new diverted profits tax will raise more than £1 billion over the next five years.
Secondly, I am taking action today to make sure that our banks pay their fair share, too. Under the rules we inherited, banks can offset all their losses from the financial crisis against tax on profits for years to come. Some banks would not be paying tax for 15 or 20 years, which is totally unacceptable. The banks got public support in the crisis and they should now support the public in the recovery. I am today limiting the amount of profit in established banks that can be offset by losses carried forward to 50%, and delaying relief on bad debts, which together will mean that banks contribute almost £4 billion more in tax over the next five years. We will also put in place internationally recognised measures on hybrids and the reporting of tax by country.
That is multinationals and banks paying their fair share, and so should people aggressively trying to avoid their tax—that is the third step. I am taking measures to prevent the disguising of fee income by investment managers; the avoidance of tax through special purpose share schemes, miscellaneous losses and payments of benefits in lieu of salary; the avoidance of stamp duty on takeovers; and unfair benefits from the transfer of some intangible assets on incorporation. Those measures and others set out in the document raise £2.8 billion. We are also consulting on other measures, including the use of so called “umbrella companies” to deprive people of basic employment rights such as the minimum wage, and, as a result, to avoid tax.
Fourthly, I want to preserve the non-dom status that makes our country attractive, but I want these people to pay a fair contribution while having certainty about their future arrangements. In the next Parliament, the £30,000 annual charge will remain unchanged, but those who have been here for 12 of the last 14 years will see their payment rise to £60,000; and I am introducing a new £90,000 charge for those resident in this country for 17 of the past 20 years. To tackle the continued use of enveloped properties to avoid stamp duty, I am increasing the new annual charge by 50% above inflation on properties worth over £2 million. All these tax measures I have announced amount to £9 billion over the next five years The distributional analysis the Treasury publishes today shows that the decisions across this Parliament mean that the rich are making the biggest contribution to deficit reduction. In fact, the net contribution of the richest 20% will be larger than that of the remaining 80% put together, proving that we are all in this together.
We will make further reductions in Government spending and welfare, and we will make sure taxes are paid, but ultimately our future living standards depend on Britain earning its way in the world, so we must increase our productivity. Today, we take steps to back business, support science and invest in infrastructure. This Government have succeeded in making Britain the most entrepreneurial economy in Europe, and today we want to go further. To ensure that our growing smaller businesses have access to credit, we will expand the British business bank and act to encourage peer-to-peer lending. With the Governor of the Bank of England, I am extending the funding for lending scheme by a further year and focusing it exclusively on smaller firms. We will strengthen entrepreneurs’ relief and the social investment tax relief. We will accept almost all the recommendations of the Office of Tax Simplification to reduce the administrative burden on firms, and I thank Michael Jack and John Whiting for their work.
Our tax breaks have ushered in a golden age for Britain’s creative industries as well. Today, we will extend our new theatre tax break to orchestras; and we will help one area of television production that has been in decline, with a new children’s television credit, alongside our new animation credit. I know that the whole House has been saddened to hear that Wallace and Gromit may no longer be produced because the man behind Wallace’s voice has retired, but after next May I am sure the whole House will unite behind a suitable and by then available candidate.
We also want to help British businesses do more research and development—that is crucial to our productivity. Today, I am increasing the R and D tax credit for small and medium companies to 230% and the credit for larger firms to 11%. This Government have repeatedly helped small business deal with the burden of business rates and we do so again today. We will double small business rate relief for yet another year. The last Government were going to close it, but it benefits half a million firms and means a third of a million firms pay no rates, and we are going to continue to fund it. I will also continue to cap the inflation-linked increase in business rates at 2%. I am also announcing a full review of the structure of business rates, and I urge business groups to engage with us on that. Last year, to help our high street shops, pubs and cafes, I introduced a new £1,000 discount on their rates. With the brilliant small business Saturday this weekend, I am increasing that help for the high street by 50%, to £1,500 next year.
The fall in the global oil price has meant a welcome boost to much of the British economy and to families. There is record investment this year in the North sea, but the lower oil price clearly presents a challenge to this vital industry. My right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury will set out our full proposals in Aberdeen tomorrow, but I can tell the House today that we will go ahead with an immediate reduction in the rate of the supplementary charge from 32% to 30%; we will expand the ring-fenced expenditure supplement from six to 10 years; and we are introducing, with immediate effect, a new cluster area allowance. That demonstrates our commitment to the tens of thousands of jobs that depend on this great British industry.
Despite falling fuel prices, let me make this absolutely clear: we have cut fuel duty and we will keep it frozen—with my hon. Friend the Member for Harlow (Robert Halfon) sitting right behind me, I would not dare do anything else. Just as we demand that falls in oil prices should be passed on to people at the pumps, other fuel price surcharges should also come down. We are going to require airlines to list the charges separately from the taxes on tickets, but I also want to reduce the cost of those tickets for families directly. My hon. Friends the Members for Altrincham and Sale West (Mr Brady) and for North West Leicestershire (Andrew Bridgen), and many others, have asked me to help reduce air passenger duty for children on economy flights, so from 1 May next year APD for children under 12 will be abolished. I will go further than they asked: from the following year, we will get rid of APD for children under 16 altogether.
Improving productivity for all businesses also demands a major investment in our nation’s infrastructure. Because we have controlled our day-to-day spending, I can confirm that we will invest more as a share of our GDP over this Parliament and the next than was achieved under the whole period of the last Labour Government. This week we have set out plans for the biggest road building programme for a generation. We have committed billions to our flood defences, and today I take forward the recommendation of my hon. Friend the Member for Waveney (Peter Aldous) and expand tax relief on business investment in those flood defences, too. It is all brought together in the national infrastructure plan, which is now helping our country attract more investment from around the world than any other single country in Europe.
Britain is raising its ambition, and nowhere is that clearer than in our commitment to science. It is a personal priority of mine as Chancellor. Scientific advance is a human endeavour worthy of support in its own right, but it is also crucial to our economic future. When this Government came into office, the UK was ranked 14th in the global innovation index—today, we are ranked second. But we aim to be the best. A year ago, I abolished the arbitrary cap on the total number of undergraduates at our universities. Today, I am going to revolutionise the support for our postgraduate students, too. Until now, there has been almost no financial support available, and the up-front costs of postgraduate degrees deter bright students from poorer backgrounds. Today, across all disciplines, we will make Government-backed student loans of up to £10,000 available, for the first time ever, to all young people undertaking postgraduate masters degrees.
The next step is the allocation of £6 billion on the biggest ever sustained programme of investment in the research facilities of our scientific community. This includes money for major new scientific challenges, including the search for advanced materials, ground-breaking work on ageing and the exploration of the universe. The Rosetta comet mission captured the nation’s imagination. I can tell the House that, yesterday, Britain was awarded the lead role in the next international effort to explore the planet of Mars. We on the Government Benches have often gazed at the barren and desolate wastelands of the red planet, and we have long given up hope of finding intelligent life there, but signs of any life at all would be a major advance.
Many of the new science investments will be made in the north of England. One of the great challenges of this country is to create a more balanced national economy—a challenge that has eluded Governments for generations. Our ambition is to build a northern powerhouse as a complement to the strength of our capital city, bringing together our great cities of the north. Since I set out that ambition less than six months ago, we have proposed, reported on, and given the green light to the concept of High Speed 3. This week, we commit billions of pounds to other road and rail improvements across the whole of the north of England. I can today confirm that we will tender for new franchises for Northern Rail and the TransPennine Express, replacing the ancient and unpopular Pacer carriages with new and modern trains.
When I set out the ingredients of a northern powerhouse, I promised to make progress. Today, I deliver. A few months ago, there were no proposals for major scientific institutions in the north of England. Today, we commit to a massive quarter of a billion investment in a new Sir Henry Royce Institute for advanced materials science in Manchester, with branches in Leeds, Liverpool and Sheffield. We back the brilliant work on ageing being conducted at Newcastle university, and big data computing at Hartree.
We are also committing to the industry of the north, with investment in new high-value manufacturing research. We are supporting new academy schools, and we are announcing a new sovereign wealth fund for the north of England so that the shale gas resources of the north are used to invest in the future of the north. The cultural life of the north will get a boost too, including a major new theatre space in Manchester. Manchester city council proposes to call it the Factory Manchester. Anyone who is a child of the ’80s will think that that is a great idea.
Six months ago, people would have said it was completely impossible to get the 10 local authorities of Greater Manchester to come together with the Government to agree a major devolution of power to the city and the creation of a new directly elected mayor. We have delivered in Manchester, and my door is open to other cities who want to follow its cross-party lead. I said that I had put the northern powerhouse at the heart of this autumn statement, and with billions of investment in science, transport and new civic power in our great northern cities, that is exactly what we have done this week. We show today what can be achieved if we have the determination and ambition to deliver a truly national recovery.
We will also respect and fully implement the devolution settlements across the nations of our United Kingdom. Today, I announce that we recognise the strongly held arguments for devolving corporation tax-setting powers to Northern Ireland. The Treasury believes it can be implemented provided that the Northern Ireland Executive can show that they are able to manage the financial implications. The current talks will see whether that is the case. If it is, the Government will introduce legislation in this Parliament.
In Wales, we are working towards a cross-party agreement on further powers for next March. I confirm today that we have reached agreement with the Welsh Government on the full devolution of business rates. This is a great opportunity to grow the Welsh economy. Last week, the Government supported the proposals of Lord Smith’s commission on Scotland. They will lead to the devolution of income tax rates and thresholds and other powers and ensure that the Scottish Government are responsible not just for spending money but for raising the taxes to pay for it. We will publish the draft clauses in the new year. The sheer scale of the devolution to Scotland now makes unanswerable the case for English votes for English laws.
To improve the productivity of our economy, we back business, build infrastructure and support growth across the whole UK. But in the end, Britain’s future lies in the hands of its people and their aspirations—aspirations to save, to work and to buy a home. Today we support each one.
First, on saving, from next April, we will trust people with control over their own pensions. In this autumn statement, I confirm that the 55% death tax that currently applies when a person passes an unused pension pot on to their loved ones will be abolished. People will be able to pass on their pensions to their loved ones tax free. I can also tell the House today that we will ensure that people who die before the age of 75 with a joint life or guaranteed-term annuity can pass that on tax free, too.
Next week, we will publish the market-leading rates on our new 65-plus pensioner bonds, which will be available from January. Our £15,000 new individual savings accounts are hugely popular with savers, too. Next April, we will increase the limit to £15,240. But we will do something more. At the moment, when someone dies, the savings in their ISA lose their tax-free status and their spouse starts paying tax on that money. From today, I can announce that when someone dies, their husband or wife will be able to inherit their ISA and keep its tax-free status. Pass on your ISA tax free and pass on your pension tax free. We are delivering fairness to savers and to those who aspire to work, too.
The number of young people on unemployment benefits has halved. Our goal is to abolish youth unemployment all together. To support businesses that take on young people, we are already, from next April, abolishing national insurance contributions for employing anyone under the age of 21. Today, I can go further. Under this Government, almost 2 million people have taken up an apprenticeship. The Prime Minister has set this country an ambition of 3 million apprentices in the next Parliament. We back the businesses that employ apprentices, especially young apprentices under the age of 25.
At the moment, we charge national insurance on businesses that employ apprentices. Today, I can announce that the jobs tax on young apprentices will be abolished altogether. When a business gives a young person a chance in life, we will support them, not tax them.
We also back people of all ages in work, which is why the Government have raised the tax-free personal allowance to £10,000. Next year, the tax-free personal allowance, which was set to rise to £10,500, will rise instead to £10,600. That is a total wage boost for working people of £825 a year. It means that 3.5 million of the lowest paid will now be taken out of tax altogether. That shows that we on the Government Benches do not sneer at people who want to work hard and get on. [Interruption.] I just wanted to flag that up.
It is the first step to the new goal that we have set of raising the personal allowance to £12,500 so that people working full time on the minimum wage pay no tax at all. Today, I can also announce that, unlike previous increases in the personal allowance threshold, this increase will be passed on in full to higher-rate taxpayers paying 40% tax. So the higher-rate threshold goes from £41,865 this year to £42,385 next year. That is the first increase in the higher threshold in line with inflation for five years. This year’s increase means that 138,000 fewer people will pay the higher rate than would otherwise be the case. It is a down-payment on our commitment to raise the higher-rate threshold to £50,000 by the end of the decade.
There are those who have said that it was impossible to control public spending, improve public services, reduce the deficit and still cut income taxes for hard-working families on low and middle incomes. Today, we have settled that argument: it is possible, provided that we hold to our long-term economic plan, and we are doing it.
I turn now to my final measure. As well as the aspiration to work and to save, there is the aspiration to own our own home. Today, I am announcing the complete reform of a tax that has been described as one of our worst designed and most damaging. Stamp duty is charged at a single slab rate on the whole purchase price of a home. It means big jumps in tax when house values tip into a new band. The distortions can be particularly damaging at the lower end: someone buying a property worth £250,000 pays £2,500 in tax, but if they buy a house worth just £1 more, they pay over £7,500—three times as much. In recent years, the burden of stamp duty has increased on low and middle-income families trying to buy a new home as prices have risen. That makes it even more difficult to get together the cash deposits that buyers need. It is time that we fundamentally changed this badly designed tax on aspiration, so I am today abolishing the residential slab system altogether. In future, each rate will apply only to the part of the property price that falls within that band, like income tax.
Here are the new marginal rates: you will pay no tax on the first £125,000 paid; and then 2% on the portion up to £250,000; 5% up to £925,000; 10% up to £1.5 million; and 12% on everything over that. As a result, stamp duty will be cut for 98% of home buyers who pay it. Someone buying an averagely priced house of £275,000 will pay £4,500 less in tax. The average home in London will see a similar reduction. As I said, 98% will pay less, and the whole reform represents a tax cut of £800 million per year. Only homes that cost just over £937,000 will see their stamp duty bill go up under this system—gradually to start with, rising to more substantial sums for the most expensive homes. A £5 million house will see its stamp duty rise from £350,000 to £514,000, but, of course, this is a charge that is paid only once, when the property is bought.
I can tell the House that these changes to stamp duty become effective from midnight tonight. Anyone who has exchanged contracts but not completed by midnight will be able to choose whether to pay under the old system or the new, so no one in the middle of moving house will lose out. The changes will apply in Scotland until the Scottish Government’s new regime comes into effect next April. At the end of the statement, I will move a motion to introduce this. There will be a debate tomorrow and legislation will follow.
There has been a debate in this country about taxing houses. The system that I introduce today replaces a badly designed system that has distorted our housing market for decades. It reduces stamp taxes for 98% of people who pay them in this country. It increases the taxes on the most expensive 2% of homes, but asks people to pay that tax only when they buy the house and they have the money. It does not involve a revaluation of hundreds of thousands of homes in this country. Today I am cutting stamp duty for millions of home buyers in this country—98% will be better off. That is a fair, workable, lasting reform of the taxation of housing, and it is in stark contrast to the shambles of the anti-aspirational, unworkable homes tax that the Labour party wants to impose.
Four and a half years ago, our economy was in crisis. People questioned whether Britain could remain among the front-rank economic nations of the world, but we set a course to restore stability, to get on top of our debts and to show that Britain was not going to be counted out. Through the storm we have stayed the course. Now Britain is on course for surplus, on course for lower taxes, on course for more jobs, on course for higher growth and on course for a truly national recovery—a long-term economic plan on course to prosperity.
Mr Speaker
Order. Before I call the shadow Chancellor, may I inform hon. and right hon. Members that at the end of questions on the autumn statement, I shall call the Chancellor of the Exchequer to move a provisional collection of taxes resolution? Copies of the resolution are available in the Vote Office.
Ed Balls (Morley and Outwood) (Lab/Co-op)
The House has not yet seen the detailed—[Interruption.]
Mr Speaker
Order. I made it clear that the Chancellor must be heard with courtesy and the same goes for the shadow Chancellor—[Interruption.] Order. I am grateful, Mr Robertson, for your intended helpful gesticulation. I am well aware of the old ruse of people sitting below the Gangway where they think I cannot see them and yelling their heads off, either on their own initiative or because they are rather stupidly following instructions. Either way, it does not work. They should pipe down, and if they will not pipe down, it is very simple—three words that are easily understood: “Leave the Chamber.”
Ed Balls
As I was saying, the House has not yet seen the detailed documents from the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility tables—I am sure that they will arrive shortly—but I listened carefully to the Chancellor’s statement. To establish the facts, I want to start by asking him questions about issues that are vital to our country’s future: living standards and wages; tax receipts and borrowing; growth and immigration; taxation; and the national health service.
First, on living standards—[Interruption.] These questions about living standards, wages and tax receipts are important, so I advise Conservative Members to listen to them carefully, and then we will hear the answers.
Wages have not kept pace with prices for 52 of the past 53 months. Today’s OBR forecasts confirm that wage growth is once again weaker than expected. Working people are now £1,600 a year worse off than in 2010. Someone in full-time work is now £2,000 a year worse off. For working people, there is a cost of living crisis, and the squeeze on living standards not only is hitting family budgets, but has led to a shortfall in tax revenues. The OBR confirms that stagnant wages and low-paid employment have hit revenues, saying that
“weaker-than-expected wage growth so far in 2014-15”
is
“depressing PAYE and NIC receipts.”
Does the Chancellor agree with the OBR’s analysis? Will he tell us how much tax revenue has been lost this year because of stagnating wages and forced part-time employment?
The result of that shortfall in tax revenues is that, once again, the Chancellor has had to revise up his forecasts for Government borrowing. He told the House today that the deficit for this fiscal year is now expected to be £91.3 billion—[Interruption.]
Mr Speaker
Order. Mr Opperman, you are normally a well-behaved young boy. Try to be a good boy. If you can be a good boy, you can stay; if you cannot restrain yourself, leave the Chamber. Go and have a cup of tea; take a pill—whatever is necessary.
Ed Balls
I am trying to establish the facts about the deficit from the Chancellor. He told the House that the deficit for this fiscal year is now expected to be £91.3 billion, but he did not set out in detail how much worse things are since the Budget. Will he tell the House by how much borrowing this year has been revised up compared with his Budget forecast?
Back in 2010, the Chancellor and the Prime Minister pledged to balance the budget by the end of this Parliament and that we would see the national debt falling this year. The Prime Minister said in 2010:
“In five years’ time, we will have balanced the books.”
Today the Chancellor has, I believe, announced that the deficit next year is forecast to be £75.9 billion. Will he confirm that number and the fact that the national debt next year is forecast not to fall, but to rise? While he has clearly missed his targets, he did not tell us the scale by which he has missed them. How much more will he have borrowed in this Parliament than he planned back in 2010?
Wages, income and borrowing have been hit so hard because productivity growth has been so weak. Today the Chancellor announced that he is forecasting that growth will not accelerate but—[Interruption.] The Prime Minister’s Parliamentary Private Secretary will be interested to know that the Chancellor forecasts that growth next year will slow down. I know that the Chancellor wants to blame poor growth performance and poor productivity growth on the eurozone. I share the concerns about the eurozone—we need a plan for stronger growth in Germany and across the continent—but the weakness of the eurozone cannot explain why, despite the notable successes of a number of our companies, our export performance has been so poor, and so much worse than that of other eurozone countries. Since 2010, our export performance has been 16th in the G20. In the EU, we have been 22nd out of 28 countries; three quarters of EU countries have done better than us.
Business investment, which has also lagged behind that of our competitors, fell in the last quarter. Bank lending to small businesses is falling. The number of apprenticeships for young people is falling this year. House building under this Government is at its lowest level since the ’20s. On infrastructure, for all the Chancellor’s preheated re-announcements, barely a fifth of projects are in construction, and infrastructure output is down over 11% since 2010.
On business rates, the research and development tax credit and air passenger duty, we welcome the action that the Chancellor has taken. We will support what he has proposed on APD, but let me ask him—[Interruption.]
Mr Speaker
Order. There is far too much noise in the Chamber. Mr Opperman, I have told you three times, and I do not want to have to tell you again: be quiet, sit and listen. If you do not wish to do so, get out. The same goes for the Government’s Deputy Chief Whip, the right hon. Member for Chelsea and Fulham (Greg Hands); I have been looking at and listening to him. Let me make it clear to him that he ought to know better. Behave or get out, man.
Ed Balls
We’ll get him out next year, Mr Speaker.
I would like to ask the Chancellor about the air passenger duty proposal. We will support what he has proposed, but following the Smith commission proposal to devolve air passenger duty to Scotland, will the Chancellor urgently lead work across Government, with the Scottish Government, on a mechanism to ensure that English airports, particularly in the north of England, are not disadvantaged by that devolution?
On business rates, while the review is welcome, it will not report, I believe, until 2016. Why can the Chancellor not take immediate action and adopt our plan to cut business rates for small companies? Why will he not increase the bank levy now and increase free child care for working people? Why will he not properly capitalise the business investment bank? Why will he not raise, as a proportion of earnings, the national minimum wage? Why will he not repeat the bank bonus tax and guarantee a compulsory job for all people? On regional devolution, why will he not devolve full growth in business rates to all city and county regions, to give them real control? We need a real plan for good jobs and more balanced growth.
On the subject of growth, the figures that the Chancellor announced reveal that growth has been revised downwards in 2016 from 2.6% to 2.2%, in 2017 from 2.6% to 2.4%, and in 2018 from 2.7% to 2.3%. Why is growth being revised downwards year after year? This is an interesting fact from the OBR: if our economy grew by just 0.5% a year faster than forecast, Government borrowing would come in more than £32 billion lower in the next Parliament. Does the Chancellor not see that those downgrades to growth are bad news? Without decisive action to sustain growth and raise living standards, and without a recovery for the many, not the few, he will carry on missing his deficit targets year after year.
Let me ask the Chancellor about another missed target. Over the past 12 months, net migration to the United Kingdom has been 260,000 people. Can he tell the House—this will be an interesting question to many Back Benchers in all parts of the House—the OBR estimate for net migration over the next 12 months that underpins the growth and public finance forecasts? It seems highly unlikely that it will be anywhere near the Prime Minister’s forecast, which is for tens of thousands. Will it be over 100,000 next year? Over 150,000? Over 200,000? This time, did the Chancellor remember to tell the Prime Minister the facts?
Turning to spending and taxation, the Prime Minister claimed in The Times a month ago that 80% of the planned spending cuts had been made. The Institute for Fiscal Studies says that it is less than 50%. Can the Chancellor clarify who is right and who is wrong? He claims that in the next Parliament he can cut welfare spending by over £10 billion, but in this Parliament, spending on social security is over £20 billion higher than he planned in 2010 because of what happened to housing benefit in particular. He is planning a £3 billion real-terms cut in tax credits that will hit 3 million working people on middle and lower incomes, and once again he is hitting women harder than men.
The Prime Minister rather let the cat out of the bag earlier when he referred to “masosadism”. As I understand it, masosadism is when someone enjoys having pain inflicted on them and enjoys inflicting pain on other people. We know the Chancellor’s views on the first; it seems, from the way he smiled when he announced the tax credits cuts, that he is rather enjoying the second as well. How can it be fair to hit working people with a £3 billion cut to their tax credits when he has spent £3 billion giving a tax cut to people earning over £150,000?
When families are paying £450 more in higher VAT, does the Chancellor really think that people will fall for the Prime Minister’s latest promise of a £7 billion unfunded tax cut in the next Parliament, which even the Business Secretary has called a “fantasy”? Two months on, the Chancellor gave us no details at all of where he will get the money from—not a single penny. Is he planning to pay for that with a further rise in VAT? He said at the weekend that he has no plans to raise VAT. That is what he said before the last general election, and then he raised it after the election. He should stand at the Dispatch Box today and promise that he will not raise VAT again for families and pensioners.
On the national health service, we welcome the Chancellor’s belated recognition that there is a funding crisis. Everyone knows—other than the Prime Minister, it seems—that our health service is going backwards. Accident and emergency department waiting times and GP waiting times are going up, thanks to the Government’s £3 billion reckless reorganisation. The Chancellor announced £2 billion for, he said, every year into the future—paid, it seems, by an underspend every year into the future. I have never heard of a prospective forecast of an underspend being made in quite that way. Will he confirm that that is £2 billion a year for the national health service over a flat, real baseline? We need to know the answer to that one. It seems that the Chancellor has also confirmed that £700 million of the crisis cash is a re-announcement of a re-allocation from within the existing Department of Health budget.
In the Chancellor’s stamp duty reforms, he is accepting that high-value properties are under-taxed, which is welcome. But rather than taxing them only on sale, why does he not have the courage of his conviction? The average person pays 390 times more in annual council tax as a percentage of their property than the billionaire buyer of a £140 million penthouse in Hyde park. Why will the Chancellor not have an annual charge on the highest value properties and use that for a £2.5 billion a year investment in the NHS so that we can have 20,000 nurses and 8,000 GPs every year? Why will he not match that commitment? Our national health service deserves a proper funded long-term plan, not just more short-term sticking plaster.
We then heard the Chancellor’s diversionary stunt. He had to admit today that he has failed to balance the books in this Parliament. He is now trying to divert attention with a vote on balancing the books in the next Parliament. At the time of the Budget, he talked up a vote on the overall budget surplus, but I understand from reports in the Financial Times that he has done a U-turn and retreated to a vote on a current budget surplus in the next Parliament. Will he explain what is going on with that vote and the nature of the problem that he is dealing with? We want to get the current budget back into surplus as soon as possible in the next Parliament, and get the national debt falling, but the lesson of this autumn statement is that a plan to balance the books will work only if it puts good jobs, rising living standards and stronger growth at its heart.
The Chancellor’s diversionary tactics will not work. Since he sat down, I have received the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts. Table 1.2 on page 15 sets out in detail how the latest forecast compares with the forecast at the time of the Budget. It gives us the numbers that the Chancellor failed to tell us in his autumn statement. I will give the country and the House those numbers. Compared with his Budget target—it is here on page 15 in table 1.2—borrowing this year has not gone down. It has been revised up by £4.9 billion. Next year it is revised up by £7.6 billion. Over two years the Chancellor has revised borrowing up by £12.5 billion.
The answer to my other question, which I did not have when I started, is that those figures mean that in this Parliament the Chancellor will have borrowed £219 billion more than he planned in 2010—£219 billion. It is all here in black and white—hard evidence from the Office for Budget Responsibility. The Chancellor’s borrowing targets are all in tatters. We all know that he has changed the way he styles his hair, but he cannot brush away the facts. People are worse off and he has failed to balance the books in this Parliament. For all his strutting, all his preening and all his claims to have fixed the economy—he promised to make people better off—working people are worse off. He promised that we were all in this together, then he cut taxes for millionaires. He promised to balance the books in this Parliament, and that commitment is now in tatters—every target missed, every test failed, every promise broken.
We need a recovery for the many, not just a few. We need to balance the books fairly. We need a long-term plan to save our NHS. That is the autumn statement that we needed. It will take a Labour Government to deliver it.
Rehman Chishti (Gillingham and Rainham) (Con)
I very much welcome the Chancellor’s statement, and I would like to thank him for the previous measures he introduced, which have led to youth unemployment going down and overall unemployment going down in Gillingham and Rainham, with businesses and jobs going up there. Linked to that, I thank the Chancellor for the £30 million previously given to Medway through the growth deal to support the infrastructure. Linked to that, I thank him today for the specific support given to small businesses, which are at the heart of my constituency, in creating jobs and prosperity. Linked to that, I thank him for his visit to MEMS Power Generation in my constituency, which was very much appreciated.
Mr Osborne
I fondly remember my visit to Gillingham and the Gillingham town strip I was given when I was there. My hon. Friend is a great champion of Gillingham’s businesses and transport links in the town. Many of the small business rate decisions we have taken today are in no small part due to the campaigning my hon. Friend has done on behalf of Gillingham’s businesses.
Mr Speaker
Gosh. The hon. Gentleman appears to be experiencing some discomfort, which I do not like to see. We must hear from Mr Jason McCartney.
Jason McCartney
Thank you, Mr Speaker. It is my marathon training, and in that vein, I ran the London marathon for the Forget Me Not children’s hospice this year. Along with it and my local Kirkwood hospice I would therefore like to thank the Chancellor for the measures he has taken in refunding VAT. The Forget Me Not children’s hospice is recruiting two apprentices at the moment, so will my right hon. Friend continue to support apprenticeships, 4,200 of which have been created in my constituency since 2010?
Bill Wiggin (North Herefordshire) (Con)
Can the Chancellor explain why he wants to introduce his stamp duty changes at midnight rather than a little further down the road?
Mr Speaker
Order. I am sure that the hon. Gentleman was here all along. He did not leave the Chamber—or did he?
Mr Osborne
The stamp duty changes must be introduced with immediate effect today because otherwise transactions in the housing market would stop as people waited for them. Given that 98% of home buyers will see a tax reduction, that would freeze quite a large part of the market. [Interruption.] I am told that the figure in Herefordshire is 99%.
May I take this opportunity to thank you, Mr Speaker, and the Clerks for the discussions that we have had over the last few days to make this possible.
Mr Speaker
I am glad that the hon. Member for North Herefordshire (Bill Wiggin) has received his answer, but I must say that to toddle out of the Chamber and then beetle back in and expect to take part, in defiance of the conventions of the House, renders the hon. Gentleman a cheeky little boy.
Nia Griffith (Llanelli) (Lab)
The Chancellor is quick to blame the eurozone. However, the UK now languishes as 22nd out of the 28 EU countries in terms of export growth. What specific measures will he take to improve it?
Mr Osborne
Of course I am always very happy to visit the north-east. I was there quite recently, and will be going again very shortly.
There have been a number of great pieces of news for the north-east this week. There are the improvements to the A1 around Newcastle and Gateshead and up to Ellingham, and the commitment to look at dualling beyond that. There are the improvements that we are looking at for the A69 and the A66, which is something that my hon. Friend has raised with me personally. There is also the big investment in science in the north-east. I am particularly pleased to support investment in the brilliant work that Newcastle university does on ageing.
Mr Speaker
I will shortly call the Chancellor of the Exchequer to move a provisional collection of taxes motion. Copies of the motion are available in the Vote Office.
In accordance with our Standing Order No. 51 on ways and means motions,
“A Minister of the Crown may without notice make a motion for giving provisional statutory effect to any proposals in pursuance of section 5 of the Provisional Collection of Taxes Act 1968; and the question on such a motion shall be put forthwith.”
I call Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer to move the provisional collection of taxes motion formally.