Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what estimate he has made of the number of people who will move home as a result of the construction of High Speed 2 because of (a) demolition for construction of the line and (b) blight.
Answered by Stephen Hammond
There are 464 dwellings within the area currently subject to surface-level safeguarding for the London to West Midlands section of HS2, of which 339 are to be demolished. Given recent Census data showing an average 2.3 occupants per property in the UK, we expect around 1,000 people will move from those homes.
We have not estimated numbers of people who may move for reasons of generalised property blight, but there are approximately 220 dwellings within the Voluntary Purchase Area for the London to West Midlands Route announced on 9 April. Our aim is where possible to avoid serious impacts on local residents and enable people to remain in their homes. We expect to consult shortly on further measures that may make that choice more attractive for homeowners.
Pending future decisions on routes and designs, we have made no similar estimates for other proposed sections of HS2.
Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, with reference to the Answer of 31 March 2014, Official Report, column 408W, on High Speed 2 Railway Line, what the evidential basis is for the expense and disruption caused by double-decker carriages being greater than that caused by High Speed 2.
Answered by Robert Goodwill
As per the answer of 31 March 2014, since 2009 we have considered a wide range of alternative options to a high speed railway including the use of alternative modes, a conventional speed line and upgrades to the existing rail network, including double decking.
Specifically, the March 2010 High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study considered the potential for using double deck trains on WCML as one means of enhancing capacity on conventional rail routes between London and the West Midlands/North West. Details of this study, including evidence of expense, disruption and capacity, can be found at:
This work found that while double deck carriages could increase the number of passengers per train there is a practical limit to the expansion of capacity in this manner and it offers limited potential to lead to journey time savings.
This option is also likely to lead to significant disruption and expense. Before such trains could be used on the West Coast Mainline, the route (including diversionary routes) would need to be gauge cleared to allow sufficient space for the trains to operate. This would involve raising all overhead wires, raising bridges, modifying platforms on the route, modifying station canopies, moving or raising all signal gantries and other signage on the route, and lowering track in the tunnels. Work would need to be carried out to modify existing depots or to provide new ones. Additional works would also be required to enable line speeds to be maintained on the route.
For these reasons it was concluded that there was a strong case for not considering this option further. No subsequent work has therefore been done to compare it to the case for HS2.
Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, if he will publish an updated cost benefit analysis for High Speed 2 in light of the decision not to link High Speed 2 with High Speed 1 and Eurostar services.
Answered by Robert Goodwill
We will continue to revise and update the economic case for HS2 as new project milestones are reached, such as decisions on the preferred route for Phase 2, to ensure it is based on the best available evidence and latest understanding of the project, including taking account of the decision to remove the existing proposals for the HS1-HS2 link from the scheme.
Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, with reference to the Answer of 31 March 2014, Official Report, column 408W, on High Speed 2 Railway Line, what the evidential basis for double-decker carriages not releasing sufficient capacity for commuter services is.
Answered by Robert Goodwill
As per the answer of 31 March 2014, since 2009 we have considered a wide range of alternative options to a high speed railway including the use of alternative modes, a conventional speed line and upgrades to the existing rail network, including double decking.
Specifically, the March 2010 High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study considered the potential for using double deck trains on WCML as one means of enhancing capacity on conventional rail routes between London and the West Midlands/North West. Details of this study, including evidence of expense, disruption and capacity, can be found at:
This work found that while double deck carriages could increase the number of passengers per train there is a practical limit to the expansion of capacity in this manner and it offers limited potential to lead to journey time savings.
This option is also likely to lead to significant disruption and expense. Before such trains could be used on the West Coast Mainline, the route (including diversionary routes) would need to be gauge cleared to allow sufficient space for the trains to operate. This would involve raising all overhead wires, raising bridges, modifying platforms on the route, modifying station canopies, moving or raising all signal gantries and other signage on the route, and lowering track in the tunnels. Work would need to be carried out to modify existing depots or to provide new ones. Additional works would also be required to enable line speeds to be maintained on the route.
For these reasons it was concluded that there was a strong case for not considering this option further. No subsequent work has therefore been done to compare it to the case for HS2.
Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, with reference to the Answer of 31 March 2014, Official Report, column 408W, on High Speed 2 Railway Line, what the evidential basis is for the practical limit to the expansion of capacity on the West Coast Mainline being lower than predicted growth for that line.
Answered by Robert Goodwill
Evidence set out in the Strategic Case for HS2 (www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-strategic-case) demonstrates that parts of the West Coast Main Line are effectively full in terms of the number of trains; many of which are already full to overflowing at certain times of day and demand is expected to grow.
Rail demand has grown by 54% over the last decade, which is the equivalent of annual growth rate of 4.4%. Chapter 3 of the Strategic case sets out that even with more modest growth of 2.5%, all of the additional peak seats provided by enhancing the line will be used up during the 2020s.
The Department has considered a wide range of alternatives including upgrades to the existing West Coast Main Line. The most recent report, commissioned from Atkins can be found here (www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/253456/hs2-strategic-alternatives.pdf). This provides evidence that expanding capacity on the West Coast Main line would not be a robust long term solution to the capacity, connectivity and reliability challenges on the line. Not only would it not provide sufficient additional capacity to meet long term demand, but it would not offer a robust solution to the problem of poor service performance and would significantly disrupt services for many years during construction work.
Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what estimate he has made of the excess capacity on peak High Speed 2 services.
Answered by Robert Goodwill
The HS2 Economic Case published in October 2013 indicates that the average all-day load factor for HS2 services in 2036 for the full network is expected to be 41%. Peak period load factors are expected to be significantly higher.
Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what estimate he has made of changes in passenger numbers on the West Coast Main Line over the next 10 years.
Answered by Stephen Hammond
I refer my Hon Friend to my answer of 28 April 2014, Official Report, columns 517-518W (UIN 196423).
Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, in which circumstances he uses a calculation of the (a) value of preventing a fatality, (b) willingness to pay and (c) cost-per-quality adjusted life year approach to quantify the value of a policy intervention; what other tools he uses to quantify the benefit of a policy intervention; and if he will make a statement.
Answered by Robert Goodwill
The Green Book and associated supplementary guidance is publicly available on the Treasury web site. It sets out a range of approaches and methods that may be appropriate in a number of different appraisal circumstances.
Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, pursuant to the Answer of 6 March 2014, Official Report, column 940W, on railways: passengers, and to paragraph 4 of Annex 2 to the Tenth Report of the Transport Committee of Session 2010-12, High Speed Rail, HC 1185-i, what assessment he has made of whether an 80 per cent increase in seats on the West Coast Main Line by 2016 should create enough extra seats to deal with projected increase in passenger growth outlined in the Answer.
Answered by Robert Goodwill
The Department for Transport asked Network Rail to carry out an assessment of the 51M and RP2 proposals referred to in paragraph 4 of Annex 2 to the Tenth Report of the Transport Committee of Session2010-12, High Speed Rail, HC 1185-i. This assessment is available at:
http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-review-of-strategic-alternatives/hs2-review-of-strategic-alternatives.pdf. Network Rail's assessment suggests that the additional capacity proposed by both 51M and RP2 would not match the demand growth on the route and would not solve the overcrowding on suburban services at the southern end of the route in the peak.
Asked by: Stephen O'Brien (Conservative - Eddisbury)
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what calculations he has used to estimate actual take-up by freight of any spare capacity releases on existing West Coast Mainline tracks if High Speed 2 Phase 2 is realised, including the costs of double and triple handling of goods, products and containers from point of production to point of sale.
Answered by Robert Goodwill
HS2 has the potential to increase the amount of freight that can be carried by rail between London and the West Midlands by using the existing mainline capacity that it releases. HS2 Limited's assessment concludes that an extra 20 West Coast Main Line freight paths could be released. The Department has not conducted any analysis of potential take-up of these freight paths released by HS2, and such take-up would be a commercial matter for rail freight operators.