Scottish Separation

Debate between Tom Greatrex and Graeme Morrice

Tuesday 10th July 2012 Westminster Hall

[Graeme Morrice]

That question begs the question: many questions give me concern—not least, defence.

I now move on to North sea oil, which has long been regarded by the supporters of separation as the jewel in the crown of a Scotland outwith the UK. The Library standard note on “Scotland’s economy: current situation and issues related to independence”, published in April this year, highlights three key issues when considering this critical question—the division of the UK continental shelf and, therefore, of the oil reserves; future production levels; and the price of oil.

The argument has always been that a separate Scotland should be due the lion’s share of the North sea’s oil, and that the tax revenue from the fields would therefore accrue to Scotland. The suggestion that a separate Scotland would be due most of the North sea’s oilfields, however, is very much open to debate, and most experts agree that nothing concrete could be concluded before the negotiations on separation. Furthermore, the boundary issue aside, the reality is that oil and gas can simply no longer be relied upon in the way that the SNP has always suggested, because of the production and price questions.

Fossil fuels are a declining resource, and the trend of reduced production is now clear. Oil and gas production is falling rapidly; in 2011 it was down by 19% on the previous year, and recent Department of Energy and Climate Change figures show that oil production fell by 13% in the first quarter of this year and gas production by 14%. Future projections suggest that many North sea fields will have ceased production by the 2020s, while the cost of extraction is increasing year on year.

Oil also has a history of price volatility. The Library note shows that it has varied in recent years from a low of nearly $9 a barrel in November 1998 to a peak of almost $150 a barrel in July 2008. The price of oil is closely linked to production, with a low oil price making it less economical to invest in hydrocarbon extraction. In terms of tax revenues from oil, the 2008 Kemp and Stephen paper referenced in the Library note stated:

“It should be stressed that the projections of tax revenues are subject to much uncertainty. Thus oil prices have been very volatile and this should remain the case over the next few years.”

Oil and gas of course remain an important part of the Scottish and UK economies, and will do so for many years, but to bet Scotland’s economic future on the sector is naive at best and foolhardy at worst. Those latest figures highlight the importance of a balanced economy that is not over-reliant on one industry. They also demonstrate one of the many benefits of Scotland being part of the UK economy: we are able to work together in partnership to share the risks and rewards involved in harnessing our energy resources.

[Tom Greatrex (Rutherglen and Hamilton West) (Lab/Co-op)]

My hon. Friend is making an important point on energy. Does he agree that the current support regime for renewable energy is levied on consumers throughout the whole of Britain and, because Scotland is where the resource is, that support goes disproportionately to Scottish generators? Does he realise that about 10% of consumers are in Scotland, but that about 30% of the support goes to generators in Scotland? Is that not another example of us working well together and getting the most benefit from a renewables future?

[Graeme Morrice]

I entirely agree with what my hon. Friend says, and it is a further argument.