Asked by: Yvette Cooper (Labour - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley)
Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what the Government’s modelling estimates the average likelihood is of a UK resident catching covid-19 in the next seven days; and what the estimated peak of the covid-19 outbreak is for (a) individuals who do not follow the Government’s advice on reducing the spread of the virus, (b) individuals who do follow the Government’s advice and (c) individuals who go further than the Government's advice and reduce their social contact.
Answered by Helen Whately - Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
The Government relies on modelling work undertaken by several academic groups, who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies through its various subgroups. A collection of modelling information which has informed decision making on COVID-19 has now been published at the following link:
Asked by: Yvette Cooper (Labour - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley)
Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what the Government’s modelling suggests the peak level of covid-19 infection will be; how many people will be infected at that point; and what the confidence intervals are around that projection.
Answered by Helen Whately - Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
The Government relies on modelling work undertaken by several academic groups, who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies through its various subgroups. A collection of modelling information which has informed decision making on COVID-19 has now been published at the following link:
Asked by: Yvette Cooper (Labour - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley)
Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, if he will publish (a) the Government’s modelling of the delay to and reduction in the peak of the UK covid-19 outbreak (i) most likely to be achieved by the steps announced on 12 March 2020 and (ii) which would be achieved if additional social distancing measures were adopted as of 16 March 2020, (b) the assumptions behind the behavioural models on the (A) level and (B) length of public take up of measures and (c) the sensitivity of the behavioural models to those assumptions.
Answered by Helen Whately - Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
The Government relies on modelling work undertaken by several academic groups, who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies through its various subgroups. A collection of modelling information which has informed decision making on COVID-19 has now been published at the following link:
Asked by: Yvette Cooper (Labour - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley)
Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, with reference to the statement by the Chief Medical Officer on 9 March 2020 that, The risk is that if we go too early people will understandably get fatigued and we won't be able to sustain it over time, if he will publish the behavioural modelling underpinning the Government's approach to tackling the covid-19 outbreak.
Answered by Jo Churchill
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has published the scientific evidence supporting the Government response to COVID-19, including behavioural modelling, available at the following link:
Asked by: Yvette Cooper (Labour - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley)
Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, whether it is the Government’s objective to establish herd immunity against covid-19; and what level of infection is required for that immunity to be established.
Answered by Jo Churchill
Herd immunity is not part of the Government action plan but is a natural by-product of an epidemic.
Our aims are to save lives, protect the most vulnerable, and relieve pressure on the National Health Service. We have now moved out of the contain phase and into delay, and we have experts working round the clock.
Every measure that we have or will introduce will be based on the best scientific evidence.
We are still learning about the properties of the new coronavirus so we cannot yet say with accuracy at what level of infection herd immunity might be realised.
Asked by: Yvette Cooper (Labour - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley)
Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, how the Government will assess whether the steps being taken are delaying the spread of covid-19 in the absence of full testing.
Answered by Jo Churchill
Since February, the Government has had a sophisticated surveillance programme in place to test for COVID-19.
In addition to having expanded testing more generally, and continuing to do so, Public Health England specifically tests a sample of the population in order to assess the level of virus circulating in the community.
This helps us to understand what proportion of the population is affected at a given time and is used by modellers to estimate where we are in the pandemic and to assess the impact of the steps that have been taken.
Asked by: Yvette Cooper (Labour - Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley)
Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, with reference to the oral statement on Coronavirus, 3 March 2020, Official Report, column 771, what steps he is taking to support people that are dependent on informal social care from family members in the event that covid-19 results in those family members (a) unable to and (b) advised not to provide that care.
Answered by Helen Whately - Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
Public Health England (PHE) has published guidance for vulnerable groups which is available to view at the following link:
COVID-19 guidance for residential care, supported living and home care is published at the following link:
The Stay at Home guidance on self-isolation can be viewed at the following link:
The Department is working with the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government and local authorities to make sure there will be care for vulnerable individuals who normally rely on informal care in the event that family members are unable to or are advised not to provide that care.