Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, pursuant to his oral contribution of 1 October 2020, Official Report, Column 503, if he will publish the evidence in support of his statement that hundreds of thousands of deaths would follow if the Government just let the virus rip; and if he will make a statement.

In March 2020, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies and the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team published their paper, ‘Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand.’ This conducted research and analysis into a variety of public health measures, including so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions, aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. This research, which was the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing of a reasonable worst-case scenario, was crucial in the decision to implement NPIs.