Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, pursuant to the Answer of 23 January 2024 to Question 9806 on Fraud, for what reason his Department forecasts that fraudulent behaviour will rise by five per cent per year.

The 5% forecast assumption is an Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) figure based on a range of evidence, most notably the Home Office statistics that show that fraud has been consistently rising across the economy over recent years.

This is further supported by the recent British Social Attitudes survey - British Social Attitudes: Fraud and Error in Welfare Benefits, 2016 to 2022 (publishing.service.gov.uk) which shows that public tolerance of benefit fraud has increased over the last few years.

Further detail of all factors considered can be found at Q98 of the Public Accounts Committee from September 2023 - committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/13676/pdf/