Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, how many offenders (broken down by type of offence) will be released at each of the scheduled early releases as part of the earned progression model as laid out by The Sentencing Act 2026 (Commencement No. 4) Regulations 2026.

This Government inherited a prisons system days from collapse. We had no choice but to take decisive action to stop our prisons overflowing and keep the public safe. Our landmark Sentencing Act 2026 will now deliver a more sustainable solution to the prison capacity crisis we inherited, including through the progression model which will help ensure there are always enough places for the courts to be able to send people to custody in order to keep the public safe.

The progression model amends release points for offenders on standard determinate sentences. As a result of the new release points, some offenders currently in prison will be eligible for earlier release. To ensure the release of these prisoners is done as safely as possible, prisoners will be released in ten monthly tranches, running from 2 September 2026 to June 2027.

It is not possible to know future release data precisely so far in advance, including because eligible offenders might be sentenced to prison between now and the commencement date for tranche 1 on 2 September 2026. There will also be current prisoners who have not yet had ongoing, additional criminal proceedings against them completed. Nor do we know any added days for bad behaviour committed between now and the final tranche in June 2027.

The Ministry of Justice routinely publishes Accredited Official Statistics on prisoner releases as part of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly (OMSQ) publication.