Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what recent assessment he has made of the cost to businesses of the new trade checks which have been introduced as a result of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement seeks to reduce the costs for traders of customs processes introduced following the end of the transition period with the EU. It supports efficient customs arrangements and ensures that goods originating in the EU or UK are not subject to tariffs.

The Treasury has not prepared an economic Impact Assessment on the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) and it does not prepare forecasts for the UK economy and public finances, as this is the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The latest forecasts from the OBR were published alongside the Budget on 27 October 2021:

https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2021/

The OBR’s analysis used a range of external studies to predict the long term impact on UK GDP.