Question to the Home Office:

To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department, if she will publish the detailed calculations conducted by her Department underpinning the estimates that (a) 100,000 and (b) 200,000 Ukrainian nationals would be eligible to seek family visas in the UK under the respective criteria set out in her statements on 28 February and 1 March 2022.

The Government has set no limit to the number of people it will accept under the routes announced to support Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion, but potential use of these routes is difficult to estimate.

A broad estimate of potential sponsors under the Ukraine Family Scheme can be made, taking Ukrainian nationals with settlement or holding status under the EU Settlement Scheme and Ukrainians granted British citizenship as groups most likely to have familial links with Ukraine. Estimates are based on internal analysis. Data on these groups can be found in published statistics:

Table_Se_D01 of https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1055252/settlement-datasets-dec-2021.xlsx

Table EUSS_NON_EEA_02 of

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/eu-settlement-scheme-quarterly-statistics-december-2021

Ukrainian nationals at Table Cit_D02 of https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1055257/citizenship-datasets-dec-2021.xlsx

The Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme (Homes for Ukraine) provides support for an unlimited additional number of people.

Latest data on applications to come to or stay in the UK under the Ukraine Family Scheme or Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme (Homes for Ukraine), including totals for visa applications received and visas issued to people is published here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ukraine-family-scheme-application-data