Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what the average case rate is per 100,000 that is required for a region to be moved from Tier 3 covid level restrictions to Tier 2.

Public Health England, the Joint Biosecurity Centre and NHS Test and Trace constantly monitor the levels of infection and other data on prevalence of the virus across the country to inform the local action committee decision-making process including allocation of tiers. Decisions on which area is allocated to which tier of COVID-19 level restrictions are primarily based on five key epidemiological indicators:

- case detection rates in all age groups;
- case detection rates in the over 60 year olds;
- the rate at which cases are rising or falling;
- positivity rate or the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken; and
- pressure on the National Health Service, including current and projected occupancy.

Whilst each metric is important in its own right, the interplay between each indicator for a given area is equally important. As a result, hard numerical thresholds on each metric are not set. The indicators are designed to provide a full picture of what is happening with the virus in any area so that suitable action can be taken. The Government will maintain an approach that continues to allow our decisions to be driven by the data and expert judgement.