Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what plans he has to (a) assess the effectiveness of and (b) improve the Department’s processes for rail passenger demand forecasting.

The Department continuously assesses the performance of its forecasts and seeks to improve them by commissioning research, as well as reviewing work completed elsewhere, to ensure that we are using the latest available evidence. The Department assesses the performance of its forecasts by carrying out “backcasting” exercises, whereby our forecasting technique is applied historically to see how the forecasts compare to actual passenger numbers. Some backcasts were published in the Rail Demand Forecasting Estimation study phase 2 report (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/610059/phase2-rail-demand-forecasting-estimation-study.pdf ). Further, the Department carries out peer reviews on new forecasting evidence, and compares its techniques to those used by other rail forecasting bodies, as well as learning from other industries.

The Department endeavours to improve its rail forecasting by commissioning research and collaborating with industry partners and others in the Passenger Demand Forecasting Council (PDFC). PDFC have recently revised their evidence base in a new version of the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook.