Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what estimate she has made of the number of additional teachers need in (a) mathematics, (b) English, (c) science, (d) physics, (e) computer science, (f) modern languages, (g) geography and (h) history in (i) 2016-17, (ii) 2017-18, (iii) 2018-19, (iv) 2019-20 and (v) 2020-21.

The Department for Education uses the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to estimate the demand for the number of qualified teachers within state-funded schools in England each year using a range of assumptions, including projections for the numbers of pupils in schools, the number of teachers expected to leave the sector and the number of returnees.

To estimate the demand for teachers for specific secondary subjects, the TSM uses the latest data on secondary subject take-up, defined by hours taught, and projected pupil numbers at Key Stages 3 to 5. It also takes into account the different age and gender demographics of the teacher stock for different subjects, which affect the likelihood of teachers of different subjects leaving the profession or retiring, and assumptions on the impacts of subject-specific policy changes.

The estimate of teacher demand is published in part 1 of the TSM here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model

The TSM’s primary purpose is to estimate the number of Initial Teacher Training (ITT) places required in the 2016/17 academic year to yield the required number of Newly Qualified Teachers (NQTs) entering the profession in 2017/18. The TSM is updated annually to reflect the latest available data.