Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, if he will outline the expected timeline for incorporating new evidence, including on the Stockholm3 test, into the UK National Screening Committee’s prostate cancer screening model.

The Prostate Cancer Screening Model, used by the UK National Screening Committee (UK NSC) to make its recommendation, was commissioned from modelling experts at the Sheffield Centre of Health and Related Research (SCHARR). SCHARR has been commissioned and funded by the Government to maintain the model and continue to work with the UK NSC on developing it for a further three years. This means that new data and evidence can be considered and included in the model throughout the life of the contract.

The model uses data and evidence from a variety of sources, some of which, for example epidemiological data and National Health Service costs, will need to be kept updated throughout the three-year period to ensure that the most up-to-date and relevant data is used in the model before new analyses are run.

The team at SCHARR is already working with the UK NSC Secretariat to identify and consider new evidence. This includes, for example, whether the definition of family history can be refined and whether there is robust additional evidence that can be put into the model.

The UK NSC and SCHARR are also preparing to examine evidence relating to risk algorithms and biomarkers, for example, the Stockholm3 tool. The underpinning evidence on these will be examined in a large evidence review. If the evidence is compelling, then the model will be adjusted to allow varying pathways, risk stratification, for men depending on the results of multiple tests.

In addition, the UK NSC Secretariat is liaising with the research team running the TRANSFORM trial and will work with SCHARR to update the model in the light of any significant information from the trial, especially on Black men.

Furthermore, the UK NSC Secretariat will continue to horizon scan for other relevant evidence. The UK NSC launched an open call for screening topics to be put forward on 1 July, and this is open until 30 September, with further information available at the following link:

https://nationalscreening.blog.gov.uk/2026/07/01/the-uk-nsc-2026-call-for-screening-topics-is-now-open/

This may yield submissions related to prostate cancer screening that will be considered and fed into the model as appropriate.

All the potential scenarios and options built into the model will be based on the best available evidence and will be considered carefully to ensure the best use of the resources allocated and to optimise timely and useful outputs to the committee.