Question to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs:

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, when the security of wood supply in the UK will reach its peak based on current levels of new forestry planting; and if he will make a statement.

The Forestry Commission publish availability forecasts for softwood and hardwood. The proportion of this resource that reaches market will depend on market conditions and the wishes of those that own woodland. In the period 2013 – 2016 annual softwood production varied between 13 and 14 million m³ over bark standing compared to a forecast availability of 16.5 millon m³ over bark standing. Softwood production in 2017 was 13.3 million m³ over bark standing compared to a forecast availability of 17.1 million m³ over bark standing.

The 2014 forecast of softwood availability for the forest estate in Great Britain is an average of 15.2 million m³ over bark standing per annum over the next 50 years. This availability exceeds current production levels. Current forecasts do not take into account timber that will become available from woodlands that have been recently established and will be established in the near future.

Softwood availability is forecast to reach 18.4 million m³ over bark standing in the period 2027 – 2031. Hardwood availability is forecast to reach 3 million m³ over bark standing in 2042 – 2046. Current forecasts do not take into account timber that will become available from woodlands that have been recently established and will be established in the near future.

Source: National Forest Inventory: 50-year forecast of softwood availability (Forestry Commission, April 2014), National Forest Inventory: 50-year forecast of hardwood availability (Forestry Commission, April 2014)

Notes:

1. The estate of the Forestry Commission and Natural Resources Wales is assumed to be managed according to current management plans; note both Forestry Commission Scotland and Natural Resources Wales intend to cap production below the level set out in this table.
2. For softwood, private woodland is assumed to be managed in a way that maximises total production.

1. More recent softwood availability forecasts, covering a 25 year period only, are available from the NFI web pages at:

www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/national-forest-inventory/

1. In private woodland, hardwood harvesting is assumed to be limited to areas with evidence of recent thinning activity. If these woodlands were managed to maximise total production, the forecast would be much higher, as illustrated in the full National Forest Inventory report available at:

www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/national-forest-inventory/

1. An update to these figures is due to be published in 2020.

To convert ‘overbark standing’ into green tonnes multiply by 0.818 (for softwood) and by 0.900 (for hardwood).