Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, how many offenders will be released (a) on 2 September 2026 and (b) at each of the following monthly release points under the Sentencing Act 2026 by offence including rape, child grooming, sexual assault, manslaughter, causing death by dangerous driving and child cruelty.

This Government inherited a prisons system days from collapse. We had no choice but to take decisive action to stop our prisons overflowing and keep the public safe. Our landmark Sentencing Act 2026 will now deliver a more sustainable solution to the prison capacity crisis we inherited, including through the progression model which will help ensure there are always enough places for the courts to be able to send people to custody in order to keep the public safe.

The progression model amends release points for offenders serving standard determinate sentences.

That is why we have taken tough decisions to stop prisons running out of space while keeping the public safe. But we have also listened to victims and acted on their concerns. Any unlawful killing offence such as manslaughter, death by dangerous driving, as well as further historic child sex offences, will now be excluded, on top of rape and serious child sex offences.

A full list of exclusions can be found here: Sentencing Act 2026 offence exclusions - GOV.UK

These exclusions are in addition to the existing exclusion of over 18,000 offenders serving the most more serious sentences.

The date from which the progression model will apply, and the date of the first tranche of releases, has changed. The first tranche of releases will no longer take place on 2 September 2026 as previously planned, but on 1 October 2026.

Whilst is not possible to know precise future release data in advance, we have published the best available modelled estimates of the volumes of offenders estimated to be released on the first day of each tranche. This information is now available at: Sentencing Act 2026 offence exclusions - GOV.UK

The Ministry of Justice also routinely publishes Accredited Official Statistics on prisoner releases as part of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly (OMSQ) publication.