Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, pursuant to the Answer of 27 January 2020 to Question 8296 on Transplant Surgery: Finance, if he will place in the Library a copy of his Department’s modelling on the anticipated impact of that Act on the number of organs (a) donated and (b) transplanted in each of the transplant units in England.

Officials in the Department, NHS Blood and Transplant and NHS England have worked together to model the anticipated impact of the Organ Donation (Deemed Consent) Act 2019 on the number of organs donated and transplanted across England. A summary of this analysis is shown in the following table. These projections have been produced using the best available evidence and will be revised as the precise impact of the switch to an opt-out system becomes clearer.

Projected number of deceased donors in England

Projected number of adult transplants in England per centre

Notes:
Assumptions for transplant projections

1. The projections are based primarily on an assumed number of donors for the next five financial years which incorporate extra donors due to opt-out legislation. The donor projections may be subject to change with further statistical modelling.

2. The conversion from target donors to transplants are based on the conversion rates observed over the last three years (2016/17 – 2018/19). The projections assume several organ utilisation initiatives will have an impact on the number of transplants.

3. The transplant projections are not based upon the number of English residents, but transplants performed at centres in England. This is because organ allocation arrangements are United Kingdom-wide and not limited to England.