Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what estimate he has made of (a) the number of trains that will run overcapacity and (b) the amount by which they will exceed their capacity on average by 2025 on currents trends in funding and passenger growth.

Estimates for the number of overcrowded trains and their levels of overcrowding in 2025 are not available.

Capacity provided by franchised rail operators is monitored by the DfT through a regular series of passenger counts at a number of major city centre stations. Along with other data sources, these feed into a model that allows the DfT to forecast passenger demand. Latest published forecasts for passenger demand are available here:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/630674/high-level-output-specification-web.pdf

The results enable the DfT to liaise with operators where capacity problems are identified, and to ensure that potential solutions are investigated.

It is for the rail industry to plan to fully deploy available rolling stock to best meet passenger demand and take all reasonable steps to minimise any crowding, as set out in the Train Plan within the Franchise Agreements for DfT’s franchised train operators.