Question to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs:

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, what recent assessment he has made of trends in the level of flood risk to the Thames Estuary.

Increasing pressures, including climate change, mean that tidal flood risk in the Thames Estuary will increase over time. The Environment Agency’s (EA) Thames Estuary 2100 Plan (TE2100) sets out how to manage increased tidal flood risk across the Thames Estuary from now until the end of the century.

The latest UK Climate Projections 2018 show that the highest projection of relative mean sea level rise for London is a 1.15m increase between 1990 and 2100. Whilst higher than the initial estimate of 90cm, this is well below the ‘worst case scenario’ of 2.7m in TE2100.

In 2016, the first five year review of TE2100 was published and looked at indicators covering a wide range of tidal flood risk scenarios, including sea level rise, conditions of flood defences, development along the estuary and any physical changes within the estuary itself. The review showed tidal flood risk is increasing, as more people now live and work in areas which benefit from tidal flood defences. The EA estimates there are now 1.3 million people and £275 billion worth of property in areas of the Thames Estuary which would be at greater risk of flooding if defences were not in place. These increases are in line with forecasts on which TE2100 is based and confirm that it remains fit for purpose.

A full review of TE2100 is scheduled for 2020.