Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, whether his Department has undertaken any modelling on the projected adult prison population for each month from August 2026 to February 2028 under scenarios in which (a) the Sentencing Act 2026 is implemented as enacted, (b) the Act is implemented with the offence exclusions announced on 4 August 2026, and (c) the Act is implemented with the exclusion in toto of the section 23 early-release provisions.

This Government inherited a prisons system days from collapse. We had no choice but to take decisive action to stop our prisons overflowing and keep the public safe.

Our landmark Sentencing Act 2026 will deliver a more sustainable solution to the prison capacity crisis we inherited, including through the progression model, which will help ensure there are always enough prison places for the courts to be able to send people to custody.

The Prime Minister’s review of the progression model carefully considered implications for prison capacity as well as concerns raised by victims, survivors, parliamentarians and the wider public.

To provide transparency, we legislated for a duty to publish an Annual Statement on prison capacity. This will be published later this year.