Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, how many prisoners his Department expects to be released in the first tranche of early release under the Sentencing Act 2026 progression model by establishment.

Following the Government's review of the Sentencing Act, and the decision to exclude additional offences from the Progression Model, the commencement date was moved to 1 October 2026. As a result, the first tranche will take place on 1 October 2026, with the second tranche following on 13 October 2026 as originally planned.

We have published the modelled estimates of the volumes of offenders to be released on the first day of each tranche. Current published estimates do not identify releases from individual prisons. This information is now available at: Estimated progression model tranche release volumes - GOV.UK.