High Speed 2 Line: Cost benefit Analysis
(asked on 13th July 2022) - View Source
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what the calculated benefit-cost ration was for HS2 (a) in its original conception, including a link to HS1 and a spur to Heathrow airport, (b) as originally envisaged but without the link to HS1, (c) as originally envisaged but without the link to HS1 and without the Heathrow link, (d) in the configuration following the deletion of most of the eastern leg, and (e) in its present configuration with the deletion of the link from HS2 to the west coast main line just south of Wigan.
Benefit Cost Ratios for the HS2 programme have been published within business cases at different stages of the scheme’s development. A list of relevant business cases is provided below.
It is important to note that the BCRs set out below have been developed over a significant period of time and will reflect different inputs and assumptions as well as changes to the network assessed. This includes changes in exogenous forecasts such as GDP and population forecasts, which are inputted into the models and which impact on benefit and revenue estimates. Cost estimates have also been developed over time, reflecting changing levels of cost maturity. These factors mean that direct comparison between the BCRs for the different HS2 networks set out below is not possible. It should also be noted that there is an inherent degree of uncertainty in developing a single BCR for a programme being developed and delivered over several decades.
Nevertheless, the below are available as publicly assessable documents. The BCRs requested are provided below as is a link to the documents they were published in:
(a) In its original conception, including a link to HS1 and a spur to Heathrow airport
https://hs2ltd.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/summary-economic-case_0.pdf
(b) As originally envisaged but without the link to HS1
(c) As originally envisaged but without the link to HS1 and without the Heathrow link
(d) In the configuration following the deletion of most of the eastern leg
We do not have a BCR for the full HS2 network which accounts for the commitments on the Eastern Leg made in the Integrated Rail Plan, as options are being developed. The BCR for the full network for HS2 which includes Phase One, 2a and 2b Western Leg was published in the January 2022 business case: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1051209/hs2-phase-2b-western-leg-crewe-to-manchester-an-update-on-the-strategic-outline-business-case.pdf
(e) In its present configuration with the deletion of the link from HS2 to the West Coast Main line just south of Wigan.
As above, we do not have a BCR for the full HS2 network which accounts for the commitments on the Eastern Leg made in the Integrated Rail Plan, as options are being developed. However there is a BCR for the full network for HS2 which includes Phase One, 2a and 2b Western Leg (excluding the link from HS2 to the west coast main line (known as the Golborne Link)) which was published in the June 2022 business case: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1084080/hs2-phase-2b-western-leg-crewe-to-manchester-supplement-to-the-update-on-the-strategic-outline-business-case.pdf