Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what assessment her Department has made of the potential impact of a third runway at Heathrow Airport on (a) UK exports, (b) inward investment and (c) international business connectivity.

Expansion at Heathrow Airport is expected to deliver economic growth across the country through enhanced international connectivity, strengthened domestic links and increased trade and investment opportunities. External analysis commissioned by the Department estimates that the scheme could add up to 0.05% to UK GDP in 2056.

This modelling predicts that UK exports would increase by 0.13% in 2056 under the core appraisal scenario. An external literature review commissioned by the Department identified a positive impact of aviation connectivity on FDI, and expansion would be expected to increase opportunities for inward investment.

The Department’s aviation forecasts predict that expansion would result in a significant increase in aviation connectivity, with 217,000 additional flights at the UK level by 2055. 38,000 of these flights are forecast to be to long-haul destinations, providing businesses with more frequent access to existing markets, as well as enabling new routes to emerging markets.