Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, further to the answer of 4 September 2026 to Question 26199, what his Department’s latest estimate is of the reduction in demand for prison places by 2028 from the change to standard determinate sentence release points, taking account of the offence exclusions announced on 4 August 2026.

This Government inherited a prisons system days from collapse. We had no choice but to take decisive action to stop our prisons overflowing and keep the public safe.

Our landmark Sentencing Act 2026 will deliver a more sustainable solution to the prison capacity crisis we inherited, including through the progression model, which will help ensure there are always enough prison places for the courts to be able to send people to custody.

The Prime Minister’s review of the progression model carefully considered implications for prison capacity as well as concerns raised by victims, survivors, parliamentarians and the wider public.

To provide transparency, we legislated for a duty to publish an Annual Statement on prison capacity. The 2026 statement will be published in due course and will contain updated demand and supply projections, accounting for the impact of the updated progression model offence exclusions announced over the summer.