Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, with reference to paragraph 5.14 of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and fiscal outlook October 2026, what estimate she has made of the additional cost to the Probation Service of the early release scheme in each year to 2028-29; and how many sentence management posts in the Probation Service were vacant on the latest date for which figures are available.

The Probation Service is addressing the additional staffing need of 3,150 full time equivalent (FTE) posts through workforce growth, and by rebalancing demand and capacity through process improvements, policy changes and better digital tools to reduce the administrative burden on probation practitioners. This will enable staff to focus more on public protection and rehabilitation. On average, the cost of employing an additional 1,000 FTE Band 4-qualified Probation Officers is £55 million.

The Government has published its assessment of the costs associated with the Sentencing Act 2026 reforms, including impacts on the Probation Service, in the Sentencing Act 2026 Impact Assessment. The latest published Probation Service workforce statistics are available in H M Prison & Probation Service’s workforce quarterly statistics: HMPPS workforce statistics.