Public Sector Net Cash Requirement: Interest Rates

(asked on 27th November 2023) - View Source

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will publish an estimate of the potential impact of borrowing an additional 1% of gross domestic product on interest rates.


Answered by
Bim Afolami Portrait
Bim Afolami
Economic Secretary (HM Treasury)
This question was answered on 1st December 2023

Responsible decisions on borrowing are a key pillar of government support to the MPC in its action to bring inflation down to the 2% target. The external evidence suggests that for every extra 1% of GDP of borrowing (£25 billion), we could potentially be pushing up interest rates by as much as half a per cent. And there are reasons to believe that in current conditions it could be higher than that. Treasury modelling suggests that in the current economic conditions the impact might be between 0.5 and 1.25 per cent, without taking into account any supply-side impacts on the economy.

More detail on the methodology can be found here : Further detail on HMT analysis of borrowing and interest rates - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Reticulating Splines