Question to the Home Office:

To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department, how many people her Department expects to be granted indefinite leave to remain in each year from 2026 to 2030.

The Home Office published a settlement forecast in Annex A as part of A Fairer Pathway to Settlement: Government response to the consultation on Monday 2nd November 2026.

The Home Office estimates that, in the absence of the changes set out in the consultation response, between 1.3 million and 2.2 million people would settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030, with a central estimate of 1.9 million.

Figure A1 in Annex A shows the breakdown of the central estimate by year. These estimates are indicative and subject to considerable uncertainty, and exclude individuals on the EUSS route.

The impact of the Earned Settlement framework on future settlement volumes will be set out in an accompanying Impact Assessment.