Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, if he will (a) publish and (b) place in the Library the modelling that the Government used to project covid-19 death rates of up to 500,000.

The Government relies on modelling work undertaken by several academic groups, who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies through its various subgroups. A collection of modelling information which has informed decision-making on COVID-19 has now been published on the GOV.UK website at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

The modelling used to project COVID-19 death rates has been published by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team under the title ‘Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand’. A copy is attached.