Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to paragraph 2.28 of the Office of Budget Responsibility's publication entitled Economic and fiscal outlook, published in October 2024, what estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of the change in overall trade intensity.

HM Treasury does not prepare forecasts for the UK economy and public finances, including assessments of potential impacts of policy changes. These are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which confirmed its assessment of EU exit’s economic impacts in its March 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

HM Treasury continues to consider a range of data sources, including trade import and export figures, as part of the department’s ongoing monitoring of the UK economy.

The Government is working with the EU to identify areas where we can strengthen cooperation for mutual benefit, and as part of this we will welcome EU leaders to the UK for the first UK-EU Leaders’ Summit on 19 May.