Question to the Home Office:

To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department, what estimate she has made of the number of small boat crossings in the English Channel between 6 September 2022 and 1 January 2023.

The Home Office does not make forecasts of numbers crossing, given the multiplicity of variables involved. However, in 2021 and 2022 a number of estimations were calculated to help ensure operational plans took account of potential levels of crossings. This included the development of best, central, and reasonable worst case scenarios for the numbers crossing by small boat. No likelihood or probability was attached to these scenarios.