Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to the oral contribution by the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury of 3 March 2025, Official Report, column 40WH, on what evidential basis she estimated that 100 additional private schools would close over three years.

At Autumn Budget 2024, the Government published the following Policy Paper Private school fees — VAT measure - GOV.UK . The basis for the estimate of school closures is set out in this paper under the heading ‘Impact on business including civil society organisations’.

Further explanation of the methodology behind the estimate of the demand reduction referred to in the above Paper is set out in the Annex to the Government_Response_to_the_Technical_Note_on_Applying_VAT_to_Private_School_Fees_and_Removing_the_Business_Rates_Charitable_Rate_Relief.pdf, under the heading ‘Demand’. This was also published at the Autumn Budget.