Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment she has made of the potential impact of increases in (a) National Insurance Contributions and (b) the National Minimum Wage on food price inflation.

It is in the remit of the Low Pay Commission, who advise the Government on the minimum wage rates, to consider the impact of changes to the minimum wage on inflation, alongside the wider economy and the labour market. The Government knows that employers respond to increases in minimum wage rates in a range of ways, but existing evidence finds that the impact on inflation is small.

Additionally, assessments made by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March 2025 suggest that policy changes made at the 2024 Autumn Budget will lead to very small increases in CPI inflation, increasing the price level by less than 0.1 per cent by the end of the parliament. Throughout the forecast period, the OBR expect CPI inflation to remain close to the 2 per cent target. The OBR does not publish estimates of the impact of policy changes on food price inflation.