Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what assessment he has made of the potential merits of (a) increasing the soft drinks industry levy and (b) lowering the threshold for drinks to be subject to the levy.

HM Treasury is the department responsible for taxation policy. The Department of Health and Social Care provides input and support as appropriate.

Indicative analysis has been conducted by the Department to estimate the calorie reduction through reformulation and substitution to alternative drinks, and the subsequent health and economic benefits as a result of the proposed changes to the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL). This includes lowering the standard sugar threshold from 5 grams to 4 grams total sugar per 100 millilitres, and removing the current exemption for pre-packaged milk based and milk substitute drinks.

Where the proposed changes to the SDIL are successful in influencing behaviour and lowering consumption of high sugar drinks, positive health and economic outcomes are expected from reduced calorie intake in diets. The indicative analysis estimates per person per day calorie reductions of 0.9 kcal in five to 10 year olds, 2.1 kcal in 11 to 18 year olds, 1.2 kcal in 19 to 64 year olds, and 0.5 kcal in those aged 65 years old and over. This is the equivalent to approximately 15 million kcals per day in children and 46 million kcals per day in adults on a population level in England. The contribution to the calorie reduction from the two proposed changes to the SDIL varies by age group, however, as an example for those aged 19 to 64 years old, the contribution is 85% for reducing the lower sugar threshold and 15% for removing the previous exemptions for milk-based and milk substitute drinks.

These calorie reductions could achieve health and economic benefits of approximately £4.2 billion over 25 years, including:

- reduced morbidity, which could result in reduced cost pressures to the National Health Service, resulting in NHS savings of £100 million;

- wider health benefits to the population through improved quality of life, leading to reduced mortality and premature morbidity, which are estimated to be worth approximately £3.1 billion;

- social care savings that could amount to £100 million; and

- reduced morbidity and premature mortality, which could be expected to deliver approximately £800 million in economic output through additional labour force participation.

The Department has not done an assessment of the potential merits of increasing the SDIL.