Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if she will publish a distributional impact assessment of changes to national insurance contributions on (a) low and (b) middle income workers in the hospitality industry.

The Government has set out the impacts of the policy changes from Autumn Budget 2024 in the usual way.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts.

With all policies considered, this forecasts the employment level to increase from 33.6 million in 2024 to 34.8 million in 2029.

The Office for Budget Responsibility published its most recent Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) in March 2025, which sets out a detailed forecast of the economy and public finances.

The Government decided to protect the smallest businesses from the changes to employer NICs by increasing the Employment Allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that this year, 865,000 employers will pay no NICs at all, and more than half of all employers will either gain or will see no change.