Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the Answer of 29 June 2020 to Question 64280 on National Income, what gross national income forecast he is using to instruct Government Departments that spend Official Development Assistance (ODA) to reduce their ODA budgets.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is responsible for producing forecasts of the economy and public finances. HM Treasury does not produce forecasts of the economy or public finances. The latest official forecast of Gross National Income (GNI) was published by the OBR on 11 March 2020. As mentioned in the reply you received on 29 June, the OBR published a reference scenario on 14 April assessing the potential impact of coronavirus on the economy and public finances. In this scenario real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is assumed to fall by 12.8% in 2020 before recovering quickly, growing by 16.1% in 2021. The Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitment is linked to the size of the economy, so the level of ODA spend is likely to decrease this year. We take evidence-based spending decisions and ensure departments maintain high standards of programme delivery that are consistent with HMG best practice.