Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, whether her Department's long-term fiscal modelling includes assumptions on the potential impact of artificial intelligence on levels of productivity.

This question was answered on 22nd July 2025
The OBR is the government's official forecaster and is responsible for assessing the UK’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Its annual publication of its Fiscal Risks and Sustainability (FRS) report includes biennial long-term projections and analysis of major potential fiscal risks.

The OBR includes a long-run productivity assumption in its forecasts. In its July 2025 long-run report, it noted that if productivity grows faster than expected it could significantly improve the outlook for the public finances. One driver for stronger-than expected productivity growth is the rapid development and spread of artificial intelligence. However, the magnitude and timing of the potential boost to productivity remains highly uncertain.