Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the Answer of 23 June 2025 to Question 60427 on Tobacco: Excise Duties, whether her Department has made an assessment of the potential impact of falling cigarette and hand rolling tobacco receipts on the size of the illicit tobacco market.

HMRC recently published an updated version of their Measuring Tax Gaps publication which now includes tax gap estimates up to 2023/24. The illicit market volume for cigarettes is shown in Table 3.13 and the total consumption volume is shown in Table 3.12. The illicit market for hand rolling tobacco is shown in Table 3.17 and the total consumption volume is shown in Table 3.16.

The Department continues to investigate how the illicit tobacco market is evolving, including through its compliance activity, and the extent to which that may affect overall tax receipts seen.