Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the Answer of 9 June 2025 to Question 54690 on Tobacco: Excise Duties, if she will make a comparative assessment of the rate of decline in smoking rates as illustrated in the ONS: Adult Smoking habits in the UK data for (a) 2021, (b) 2022 and (c) 2023 and the rate of the decline in HMRC’s tobacco duty receipts in the Tobacco Bulletin.

Table 1 below shows adult smoking prevalence in the UK and tobacco duty receipts between 2021 and 2023. The prevalence figures are taken from the ON’S “Adult Smoking habits in the UK” dataset. The receipts figures are taken from HMRC’s Tobacco Bulletin which includes figures up to April 2025.

Table 1: Adult Smoking Prevalence and Tobacco Duty Receipts 2021-2023

The ONS smoking prevalence data shows the percentage of adults in the UK who smoke cigarettes but does not give any indication of how much or how often these adults smoke.

The Office for Budget Responsibility discusses drivers of tobacco duty receipts in relation to the tobacco duty forecast on their Tobacco duties webpage. Receipts are driven by inflation (CPI and RPI), real household consumption and underlying trends in tobacco consumption. The downward trend in tobacco consumption has accelerated in recent years, partly reflecting changing attitudes and the increasing popularity of e-cigarettes.