Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office, what plans he has to record causation of excess deaths in winter 2021-22; and if he will ensure that covid-19, flu and community/hospital acquired pneumonia are separately identified in those statistics.

The information requested falls under the remit of the UK Statistics Authority. I have, therefore, asked the Authority to respond.

Letter from the National Statistician

Professor Sir Ian Diamond | National Statistician

9 November 2021

As National Statistician and Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority, I am responding to your Parliamentary Question asking about plans to record the causation of excess deaths in winter 2021-22; and whether COVID-19, influenza and community or hospital acquired pneumonia will be separately identified in those statistics (69656).

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports on ‘Excess Winter Mortality for England and Wales’ [1] annually. Excess winter mortality is estimated by comparing the winter months of December to March with the average of the four-month periods before and after. The next report on excess winter mortality is due for release on 26 November 2021, and will provide final estimates for the 2019 to 2020 winter period and provisional estimates for the 2020 to 2021 winter period. Corresponding figures for winter 2021/22 will be published in autumn 2022.

The data published on excess winter mortality will include estimates both including and excluding COVID-19. The provisional estimates for winter 2020/21 will include a specific estimate for deaths with an underlying cause of COVID-19 and new breakdowns by place of death. Cause of death groupings reported in addition to COVID-19 will be respiratory diseases, Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, circulatory diseases, and injury and poisoning.

Separately, the regular report on ‘Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales’ [2] allows excess deaths each week to be calculated relative to the average for the corresponding week in the years 2015-19. Weekly figures are provided for deaths by all causes aggregated, and for respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia, and COVID-19. The information held by the ONS is based on the particulars recorded in the process of death registration, and does not specify the place where an infectious disease was acquired.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

1. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/previousReleases

2. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest