Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if she will make a comparative assessment of (a) the recent HMRC tax gap estimates for tobacco excise duty with (b) the data in UCL’s report entitled Trends in smoking prevalence and socio-economic inequalities across regions in England: A population study, 2006 to 2024, published on 18 March 2025, on smoking prevalence in (i) 2023-24 and (ii) 2024-25.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) estimates the size of the UK tax gap, which is the difference between the amount of tax that should, in theory, be paid to HMRC, and what is actually paid. The tax gap statistics and details of the estimate methodologies are published annually and are available at: Measuring tax gaps 2025 edition: tax gap estimates for 2023 to 2024 - GOV.UK

HMRC have a continuous programme of development to improve and strengthen tax gap estimates. Tax gap estimates adhere to the values, principles and protocols set out in the UK Statistics Authority’s Code of Practice for Statistics. Tax gap estimates are reviewed each year and take into account the availability of more up-to-date data and more recent years’ information. ‘Measuring tax gaps 2026 edition: tax gaps estimates for 2024 to 2025’ is scheduled for June 2026.