Economic Growth

(asked on 12th May 2021) - View Source

Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what recent estimate he has made of projected economic growth in the next 12 months.


Answered by
John Glen Portrait
John Glen
Paymaster General and Minister for the Cabinet Office
This question was answered on 20th May 2021

HM Treasury does not prepare formal forecasts for the UK economy, which are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). In its March forecast, the OBR expects that GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and return to its pre-Covid peak in 2022. Further details can be found in Table 1.1 of the OBR’s latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2021: https://obr.uk/download/march-2021-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-executive-summary/

In addition to the OBR’s forecast, the Government has published a significant amount of analysis on the health, economic and social impact of COVID-19 and public health measures throughout the pandemic. This includes the analysis that underpinned the steps announced as part of the Government’s Roadmap out of lockdown. For the economy, this included the impacts on GVA and jobs in those sectors affected by restrictions over the last year, as well as information about the distribution of those impacts. The published report can be found at:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/944823/Analysis_of_the_health_economic_and_social_effects_of_COVID-19_and_the_approach_to_tiering_FINAL_-_accessible_v2.pdf

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