Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, how her Department assesses demand for teachers in each subject area.

The Department for Education uses the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to estimate the demand for the number of qualified teachers in active service within state-funded schools in England each year using a range of assumptions including projections for the numbers of pupils in schools and the number of teachers expected to leave the sector.

To estimate the demand for teachers for specific secondary subjects, the TSM uses the latest data on secondary subject take-up, defined by hours taught, and projected pupil numbers at Key Stages 3 to 5. It also takes into account the different age and gender demographics of teachers for different subjects (which affect the likelihood of teachers of different subjects leaving the profession or retiring) and assumptions on the impacts of subject-specific policy changes.

The department published the TSM’s estimate of teacher demand in part 1 of the TSM used to determine 2015/16 ITT allocations, along with a user guide explaining the methodology in detail, at the following link:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model