Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimates her Department has made of the potential effect of increases in indirect taxation on the rate of inflation, with particular reference to the impact of increases in tobacco duty; and if she will make an assessment of the potential implications for her policies of the Institute for Fiscal Studies' estimate that cumulative increases in indirect taxation since the last Budget have added 0.4 percentage points to the current inflation rate.

Forecasting the economy, including the effect of Government policy decisions on inflation, is the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR set out its assessment of policy measures in its Autumn Budget 2024 forecast and will update this analysis, drawing on the latest outturn data, at its next forecast next week on 26 November. The Chancellor has asked departments to prioritise reducing inflation when developing policies for the Autumn Budget, ensuring decisions support stability and long-term growth.