Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, if he will publish the full modelling and cost-effectiveness analyses underpinning the JCVI’s advice on COVID-19 vaccination eligibility for winter 2025–26, including the assumptions used on transmission, hospitalisation, mortality, and productivity losses.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation’s (JCVI) advice on COVID-19 vaccination in 2025 and spring 2026 was published on 13 November 2024. The JCVI met in September and October 2024 to formulate this advice, carefully considering the evidence on risk of illness, hospitalisation, or death as a consequence of infection, vaccine effectiveness and safety, and modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis. The minutes of these meetings, including a summary of the evidence considered, were made publicly available on the GOV.UK website in November 2024, and are available at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/joint-committee-on-vaccination-and-immunisation

The cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in 2025 and spring 2026 was carried out by the University of Warwick. This was published in the peer-reviewed academic journal ‘Vaccine’ in April 2025 by Keeling et al, including with a detailed description of the methodology and assumptions used, and is available at the following link:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X25002452

As per the JCVI Code of Practice, productivity losses were not included in this cost-effectiveness analysis.