Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what recent estimate she has made of the contribution of fuel duty to inflation and the cost of living; and whether she will review current rates in the context of wider price pressures.

Pump prices are at their lowest levels since 2021, before Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine led to soaring prices and the introduction of a temporary 5p cut in fuel duty. At Budget 2025, the Government therefore announced continued support for people and businesses by extending the temporary 5p fuel duty cut until the end of August 2026. Rates will then gradually return to early 2022 levels. The planned increase in line with inflation for 2026-27 will not take place, with the government uprating fuel duty rates by RPI from April 2027. This will save the average car driver £49 next year compared to previous plans.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out the impact of policy measures on inflation in its Autumn Budget 2025 forecast, including fuel duty policy. The OBR forecast the fuel duty freeze extension will reduce CPI inflation by 0.13 percentage points in 2026/27.

The Chancellor asked departments to prioritise reducing inflation when developing policies for the Budget, ensuring decisions support stability and long-term growth. Considering all policies, including the impact of the fuel duty decision, the OBR expect Budget measures to reduce CPI inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2026/27.

The Government considers the impact of fuel duty on the economy, including households and businesses, with decisions on rates made at fiscal events.