Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the accuracy of the census for England and Wales due to take place on 21 March.

The information requested falls under the remit of the UK Statistics Authority. I have therefore asked the Authority to respond.

Professor Sir Ian Diamond | National Statistician

The Rt Hon. the Lord Adonis

House of Lords

London

SW1A 0PW

02 February 2021

Dear Lord Adonis,

As National Statistician and Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority, I am responding to your Parliamentary Questions relating to Census 2021 in England and Wales and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Your questions asked about the reasons behind the decision to carry out the census for England and Wales on 21 March while the pandemic is ongoing (HL12462); ensuring the accuracy of the census in the light of the impact of the pandemic (HL12463); the impact of the number of people who, due to the pandemic, will not be resident at their normal addresses on 21 March, and mitigating any such impact (HL12464); the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the accuracy of the census (HL12465); and what consultation the UK Statistics Authority undertook before the decision was made to proceed with the census in England and Wales on 21 March during the COVID-19 pandemic (HL12466).

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is working to deliver a successful census in England and Wales in March 2021. Since the start of the pandemic, the ONS has updated the operational design to build in safety and flexibility to allow for continued success. The ONS has also continued to adapt its plans as the course of the pandemic has changed. Additional assurance has been carried out in the form of regular readiness assessments. The last assessment was in December and the ONS’s operational readiness was externally assured by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority. These assessments have been shared with UK Government.

Following the announcement of national lockdowns in England and Wales in December 2020, the ONS again assessed its readiness to deliver a successful census safely and securely. A statement was published by the ONS on 22 January setting out why it is important to conduct the census in 2021 and how the ONS is ensuring everyone can be safely counted in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.[1] Again, the ONS’s assessment was discussed with the UK Government at this stage. The Government’s position on continuing with the census in March 2021 is set out in a written statement of 3 February.[2]

The quality of census outputs relies on optimising response rates, which is at the heart of the design and collection operation. The ONS has designed Census 2021 to be simple, straightforward and safe to complete. This will be a digital-first census and the ONS will be encouraging people to respond online if they can on their mobile phones, laptops, PCs or tablets, with a comprehensive range of support for those who are not able to complete the census online. The main census field operation will begin only after Census Day (21 March); the primary role of field officers is to give help and encouragement to those who have not yet filled in their census questionnaire online or on paper, and to direct them to the support services they need. Census field staff will never enter people’s houses; they will be supplied with PPE, will always be socially distanced and will work in line with all government guidance. They will be operating in the same way as a postal or food delivery visit.

Every census uses proven statistical methodologies to ensure the best possible estimates as a standard approach. The ONS will build upon our Census Coverage Survey approach,[3] with increased use of administrative and survey data to maximise data quality.

The ONS published its Statistical design for the 2021 Census in October 2020[4]; this sets out its end-to-end statistical design to ensure that census results are of high quality and are fit for purpose. This document takes into account the impact of the coronavirus, both on the operational plans for the census and in other ways.[5] The ONS continues to work with a wide range of users of census statistics to ensure census outputs meet their needs. It ran a series of webinars at the end of last year as part of its ongoing engagement activity, to update users on its current plans, and will be running further output engagement later this year.

The ONS has been examining closely the impact of the pandemic on how people will respond to the census, including for people who may be resident in different locations as a result. Clear guidance is being prepared and tested about how people should complete the census if the pandemic has affected their circumstances. This includes students for whom we will provide guidance as to where they should be counted. The ONS will publish this revised guidance when the testing and development has been concluded. In quality assuring the census results, the ONS will be comparing the census data with a wide range of other sources to check that the estimates are as accurate as possible.

The ONS engages with stakeholders and data users on an ongoing basis. The pandemic has impacted its ability to carry out some of our planned stakeholder engagement activities, but the ONS has expanded its use of innovative methods of digital communication to engage stakeholders. This has been very effective and attendance at virtual meetings with stakeholders has been much higher than might have been expected in face-to-face meetings, and much more frequent engagement has been possible. The virtual engagement has continued during the current national lockdowns and will continue.

The ONS engages with local authorities and community groups representing those people who may face barriers to completing the census. It engages with local authorities through regular newsletters and a series of workshops held online through 2020 on different aspects of the census operation. It has also established a Local Authority Quality Assurance Working Group with 17 local authorities. It engages with community groups and leaders at a national and local level, with a particular focus on communities that face barriers to completing the census for cultural, motivational, understanding and other reasons. The ONS works with representatives of other sectors (central government, health, business and academia), through Census Advisory Groups and e-mail updates, to ensure they are consulted on the census and their views considered in its design and delivery.

The ONS also held a programme of eight census webinars to showcase our plans for design and quality assurance, through November and December 2020. The series included a high-level introductory overview as well as 'In Focus' sessions that outlined specific aspects in more detail, including maximising response, quality assurance and census outputs. These webinars, each of which were attended by around 90 people, provided stakeholders and users the opportunity to ask questions (including on the impact of the pandemic), give feedback and influence our future engagement activities to meet their needs.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/census2021andcoronavirus

[2] https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2021-02-03/hcws755

[3] Information on how the Census Coverage Survey worked in 2011 can be found in chapter 4 of the 2011 Census General Report: https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/census/2011census/howourcensusworks/howdidwedoin2011/2011censusgeneralreport/2011censusgeneralreportforenglandandwaleschapter4_tcm77-384967.pdf (pdf)

[4]https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/censustransformationprogramme/censusdesign/statisticaldesignforcensus2021englandandwales

[5] The operational planning response to the pandemic is covered in more detail in an article published at the same time: https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/censustransformationprogramme/censusdesign/operationalplanningresponsetothecoronaviruscovid19forcensus2021englandandwales