Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what recent assessment they have made of the annual reduction in taxation revenue due to the decision to leave the European Union.

The Treasury does not publish forecasts of the economy or the public finances. Forecasts of future tax receipts are produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) as part of its Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO).

The OBR has set out how the UK's exit from the European Union (EU) has affected its forecast. The OBR assessed the impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK trade in Box 2.4 of the March 2024 EFO and reconfirmed that assessment in the latest EFO, which is available here: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/