Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what forecast they have made of the UK tax-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio in (1) 2025–26, (2) 2026–27, (3) 2027–28, (4) 2028–29, and (5) 2029–30; and what comparative assessment they have made of the tax-to-GDP ratio of each of the G7 countries in each of those years.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published the latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) in March 2026[1]. This forecasts the tax-to-GDP ratio to change as follows: 2025-26 – 36.3%; 2026-27 – 37.0%; 2027-28 – 37.7%; 2028-29 – 37.8%; 2029-30 – 38.3%[2].

The UK’s current tax-to-GDP ratio is in the middle of the pack within the G7; lower than Italy (42.8%), France (43.5%) and Germany (38.0%), but above Japan (33.7%), Canada (34.9%) and the US (25.6%) based on the latest available OECD data. [3]

[1] https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/#

[2] https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/#, page 42

[3] Latest OECD data 2024, except Japan, which is from 2023.