Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of any increased worker productivity as a result of home working since the beginning of the COVID pandemic; and in respect of any such assessment, what adjustments they have made to (1) their estimate of the number of business journeys likely to take place on HS2, and (2) their assessment of the productivity benefits originally thought likely to be derived from these shorter business journeys.

1. The extent of the long-term impact of the COVID pandemic on rail demand is still uncertain. However, a range of sensitivities were explored in detail in the January 2022 HS2 Phase 2b Western Leg Strategic Outline Business Case. Three sensitivities were undertaken which assess three possible scenarios. These scenarios are not predictions, but instead explore a range of possible impacts of the pandemic on future rail demand. For business and commuter demand, these ranged from 5% reduction in the low-impact sensitivity to a 47% reduction in the high-impact sensitivity.

2. Wider economic benefits which include productivity benefits have been explored in the January 2022 HS2 Phase 2b Western Leg Strategic Outline Business Case. The productivity benefits are assumed to arise from reduced journey times, agglomeration benefits and from people and businesses moving to realise productivity benefits. These estimates were brought together alongside a wide range of sensitivity tests to provide a value for money assessment.